Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T11:41:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4E
0x4e39…8cbf
other · 165 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$266 +66%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$14 · open +$35
avoidriskycopy
✓ COPY-WORTHY ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$164
Realized+$14
Unrealized+$35
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses53 / 23
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions128
Markets (closed)76 / 165
Avg bet$2
Trades / day551.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%
Chart Positions 128 History 76 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$36
7 days+$14
14 days+$14
30 days+$14
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Trump and Putin meet next in a Gulf country? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $8 $11 +$4 (+50%)
Will Trump and Putin meet next in China? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $9 $11 +$3 (+32%)
Will Solana reach $160 in June? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $7 $11 +$4 (+50%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $35 by end of June? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $6 $10 +$3 (+50%)
Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $8 +$3 (+50%)
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+50%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $9,000 by end of June? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+50%)
Will XRP dip to $0.40 in June? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+25%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $8,000 by end of June? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+50%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,700 in June? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $4 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $175 in June? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+0%)
Will Mike Kennealy win the 2026 Massachusetts Governor Republican primary election? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+75%)
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps decrease at the July 2026 meeting? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+50%)
Will Moonshot have the third best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+50%)
Will Amazon have the third best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $2 +$1 (+50%)
Will Mistral have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Ethereum all time high by June 30, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+25%)
Will Microsoft have the third best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+50%)
Will Bruno Soares Reis win the 2026 Bahia gubernatorial election? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+50%)
Will João Roma win the 2026 Bahia gubernatorial election? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+50%)
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-4%)
Will Rui Costa win the 2026 Bahia gubernatorial election? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+50%)
Will STRC market cap hit $16B by June 30? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $1 $2 +$2 (+283%)
Will Marcel Ciolacu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+50%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in June? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will US unemployment reach at least 5.5% in 2026? Jun 12 $0 +$3 +1900%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another country? Jun 12 $2 +$5 +296%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another Middle East/Nor Jun 12 $1 $0 +50%
Will SpaceX IPO on June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $1 $0 -4%
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 35m? Jun 12 $1 +$3 +332%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Italy? Jun 12 $0 $0 +250%
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? Jun 12 $1 $0 +52%
Will the Bank of Brazil increase the Selic rate after June 2026 meetin Jun 12 $0 $0 +100%
Will Anthropic’s market cap be between $400B and $600B at market close Jun 11 $0 $0 +50%
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Turkey? Jun 11 $1 $0 +50%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $90 in June? Jun 11 $0 $0 +800%
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut Jun 11 $30 −$28 -94%
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut Jun 11 $7 −$7 -98%
Nasdaq round-the-clock trading by June 30? Jun 11 $1 $0 +18%
Will John Healey be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 Jun 11 $3 +$3 +100%
Will the ECB announce a 50+ bps increase at the July 2026 meeting? Jun 11 $2 +$1 +50%
Will the ECB announce no change at the June 2026 meeting? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Ruba Ghazal be the next Premier of Quebec following the 2026 Queb Jun 11 $0 $0 +897%
Will Noah Okafor be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $3 +$3 +100%
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords by June 30? Jun 11 $1 +$1 +150%
Will May 2026 be the 1st hottest on record? Jun 10 $2 $0 +9%
Will May 2026 be the 4th or lower hottest on record? Jun 10 $2 −$1 -83%
Will the Bank of Canada announce no change at the June meeting? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 300M by June 5? Jun 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 275M by June 5? Jun 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 325M by June 5? Jun 10 $22 −$22 -100%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $1 +$1 +67%
Will Kim David be the Republican nominee for OK-01? Jun 10 $0 $0 +735%
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? Jun 10 $2 +$1 +50%
Will Germany send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 20 Jun 10 $3 +$9 +265%
Jerome Powell federally charged by June 30? Jun 10 $0 $0 +75%
Will "Scary Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 44m and 48m? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -50%
Will Mark Lynch be the Republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina Jun 10 $4 −$2 -40%
Will "Scary Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 48m and 52m? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Will "The Amazing Digital Circus: The Last Act" Opening Weekend Box Of Jun 10 $1 −$1 -64%
Will "The Amazing Digital Circus: The Last Act" Opening Weekend Box Of Jun 10 $0 $0 -100%
Will "Backrooms" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 55m and 60m? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Israeli forces enter Choukine by June 7? Jun 10 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Janet Mills be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine? Jun 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $8,500 by end of June? Jun 10 $8 +$8 +100%
Will annual inflation be 4.0% in May? Jun 10 $0 $0 +0%
Macron out by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $3 +$1 +32%
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 7? Jun 09 $3 +$3 +91%
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by June 30? Jun 09 $0 $0 +200%
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? Jun 09 $3 +$2 +74%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Egypt? Jun 09 $1 +$5 +348%
Aaron Taylor-Johnson announced as next James Bond? Jun 09 $0 $0 +59%
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Belarus? Jun 09 $3 +$11 +434%
Will the US officially declare war on Venezuela by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $1 $0 -0%
Will Noble launch a token by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $0 +$1 +600%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 26% −$10
world 20% +$29
crypto 17% +$12
politics 12% +$18
finance 12% −$23
tech 11% +$16
culture 2% +$2
economics 0% +$5
sports 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 June 8-14? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 3m
Will Seyed Hossein Mousavian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 17m
Will Seyed Hossein Mousavian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 17m
Will US unemployment reach at least 5.5% in 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 18m
Trump meets with Mojtaba Khamenei by June 15? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 19m
Will Trump and Putin meet next in another country? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 19m
Will Seyed Hossein Mousavian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 21m
Will Myriam Bregman win the 2027 Argentina presidential election? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 24m
Will Solana reach $160 in June? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 24m
Will the Central Bank of Colombia announce a decrease at the June meet BUY Yes 0¢ $0 24m
Will The Democrats win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative BUY Yes 0¢ $0 25m
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 25m
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 25m
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $9,000 by end of June? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 25m
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 26m
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 26m
Any US state legislature votes on secession by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 27m
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 BUY Yes 0¢ $0 28m
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 BUY Yes 0¢ $0 28m
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 BUY Yes 0¢ $0 28m
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 BUY Yes 0¢ $0 28m
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 BUY Yes 0¢ $0 28m
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 BUY Yes 0¢ $0 28m
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 BUY Yes 0¢ $0 28m
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 BUY Yes 0¢ $0 28m
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 BUY Yes 0¢ $0 28m
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 BUY Yes 0¢ $0 28m
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 BUY Yes 0¢ $0 28m
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 BUY Yes 0¢ $0 28m
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 BUY Yes 0¢ $0 28m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)+140.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 76 +165.2% +140.0% 70% 67% -3.8%
≤30d 76 +165.2% +140.0% 70% 67% -3.8%
≤90d 76 +165.2% +140.0% 70% 67% -3.8%
all 76 +165.2% +140.0% 70% 67% -3.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover551.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +140.0% 67% -3.8%
10% ← realistic here +117.0% 64% -13.0%
15% +96.0% 61% -21.4%
20% +76.8% 53% -29.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $164.44 · official $164.44 (match) · 3500 history records