Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T13:47:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4E 0x4e36…546c sports 50 markets active 2h ago coverage 131d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$10,891 (-27%) realized −$10,858 · open −$33
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate77%36W / 11L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$807per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$97est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$5,659now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$6,537
14 days−$6,741
30 days−$6,771
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% −$6,528
sports 33% −$4,430
crypto 17% +$8
world 0% −$36
finance 0% +$47
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-20.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 10 -22.5% -29.9% 40% 40% -89.5%
≤90d 28 -20.8% -28.3% 64% 21% -47.8%
all 47 -12.2% -20.5% 77% 13% -38.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.5% 13% -38.0%
10% -28.1% 11% -44.0%
15% -35.1% 9% -49.4%
20% -41.4% 9% -54.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 54% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -42% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -32% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$527) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late -24% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$1,145 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.05 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

131d coverage
Net worth$5,659
Realized−$10,858
Unrealized−$33
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses36 / 11
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$97
Open positions3
Markets (closed)47 / 50
History coverage131d
Avg bet$807
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 47 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $5,568 $5,524 −$44 (-1%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? No 52¢ 99¢ $52 $99 +$47 (+90%)
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? No 35¢ 17¢ $71 $35 −$36 (-51%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $3,651 −$3,651 -100%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2,842 −$2,842 -100%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 15 $44 −$44 -100%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $16 −$16 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $48 +$52 +109%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 08 $240 −$240 -100%
Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 02 $180 +$120 +67%
San Diego Padres vs. Washington Nationals May 30 $46 +$54 +117%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles May 28 $378 −$378 -100%
Detroit Tigers vs. Baltimore Orioles May 23 $214 +$174 +81%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 19 $103 −$103 -100%
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $80 +$21 +26%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from May 2 to May 4, 2026? May 05 $103 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from April 23 to April 25, 2026? Apr 29 $509 $0 +0%
Washington Nationals vs. New York Mets Apr 29 $111 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on April 26? Apr 25 $1,001 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on April 26? Apr 25 $3,511 +$4 +0%
Magic vs. Pistons Apr 24 $1,166 −$1,166 -100%
Suns vs. Thunder Apr 24 $410 −$410 -100%
Knicks vs. Hawks Apr 24 $2,600 −$2,600 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on April 25? Apr 24 $458 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? Apr 21 $4,960 +$2 +0%
Grizzlies vs. Rockets Apr 13 $528 +$72 +14%
Lakers vs. Mavericks Apr 07 $507 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? Mar 30 $537 +$1 +0%
Wizards vs. Warriors Mar 28 $535 +$3 +0%
Lakers vs. Pacers Mar 27 $526 +$4 +1%
Timberwolves vs. Celtics Mar 23 $527 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on March 22? Mar 23 $528 +$1 +0%
Celtics vs. Grizzlies Mar 22 $518 +$5 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 19? Mar 21 $519 +$1 +0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Mar 19 $7 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? Mar 19 $512 +$1 +0%
Spurs vs. Clippers Mar 18 $519 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on March 17? Mar 16 $524 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on March 14? Mar 16 $515 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026? Mar 13 $524 $0 +0%
Celtics vs. Spurs Mar 12 $518 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026? Mar 11 $522 +$1 +0%
Mississippi Valley State Delta Devils vs. Grambling State Tigers Mar 10 $522 +$1 +0%
Bulls vs. Kings Mar 10 $519 +$2 +0%
Jazz vs. Wizards Mar 09 $495 +$5 +1%
Hornets vs. Celtics Mar 06 $507 +$4 +1%
Grizzlies vs. Timberwolves Mar 05 $508 +$1 +0%
Nuggets vs. Thunder Mar 04 $502 +$5 +1%
Pistons vs. Hornets Feb 28 $95 +$5 +5%
Warriors vs. Grizzlies Feb 28 $406 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $129 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $5,499 2h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 44¢ $40 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 44¢ $150 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 44¢ $15 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 44¢ $7 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 44¢ $30 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 44¢ $104 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 44¢ $36 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 44¢ $30 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 44¢ $19 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 44¢ $9 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 44¢ $4 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 44¢ $4 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 44¢ $15 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 44¢ $15 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 44¢ $75 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 44¢ $186 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 44¢ $15 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 44¢ $4 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 44¢ $4 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 44¢ $4 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 44¢ $1 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 44¢ $7 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 44¢ $18 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 44¢ $623 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 44¢ $149 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 44¢ $1 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 44¢ $39 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 44¢ $4 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,658.60 · official $5,658.62 (match) · 302 history records