Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T14:37:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
4E 0x4e35…1fc7 crypto 239 markets active 2d ago coverage 4d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (65 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$21 (+2%) realized +$21 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR69%break-even
Win rate80%191W / 48L
Drawdown80%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day65.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (65 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +69%
net ROI/market (all)-7.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 239 +2.2% -7.6% 80% 69% -8.5%
≤30d 239 +2.2% -7.6% 80% 69% -8.5%
≤90d 239 +2.2% -7.6% 80% 69% -8.5%
all 239 +2.2% -7.6% 80% 69% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover65.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.6% 69% -8.5%
10% ← realistic here -16.4% 42% -17.3%
15% -24.5% 18% -25.3%
20% -31.9% 5% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.27 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$21
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses191 / 48
Open positions0
Markets (closed)239 / 239
History coverage4d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day65.3
Drawdown80%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 239 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$1 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$4 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$3 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$2 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$2 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$5 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$3 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$4 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$2 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$5 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$3 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$7 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$4 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$4 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$9 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$2 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$3 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$2 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$4 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$3 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$2 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$3 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$4 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 15 $7 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$4 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$2 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$4 +42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET SELL Up 37¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET SELL Up 76¢ $6 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $6 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $0 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET SELL Down 36¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET SELL Down 57¢ $6 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 506 history records