Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:58:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4E 0x4e31…04b6 crypto 299 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (50 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$146 (+5%) realized +$146 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate49%146W / 153L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day50.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$71
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (50 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-17.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 299 -8.7% -17.4% 49% 47% -7.3%
≤30d 299 -8.7% -17.4% 49% 47% -7.3%
≤90d 299 -8.7% -17.4% 49% 47% -7.3%
all 299 -8.7% -17.4% 49% 47% -7.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover50.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.4% 47% -7.3%
10% ← realistic here -25.3% 47% -16.1%
15% -32.5% 46% -24.2%
20% -39.1% 46% -31.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -25% → late +7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$8 · ×1.11 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$146
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses146 / 153
Open positions0
Markets (closed)299 / 299
History coverage6d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day50.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 299 Trades
no open positions (153 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 17 $34 +$32 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 17 $41 −$40 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 17 $18 −$17 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$4 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 17 $7 +$7 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$5 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$4 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$4 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$4 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$4 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$4 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$3 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 17 $9 +$7 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 17 $8 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$5 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$4 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$4 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$5 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 17 $4 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 17 $19 +$17 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$9 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$4 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$4 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$4 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$4 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$4 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 17 $6 +$6 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$2 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 16 $38 +$31 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 16 $20 −$19 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 16 $9 −$9 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$2 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 16 $7 +$6 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 16 $8 +$7 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$4 +90%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $34 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $41 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $18 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $9 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $19 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $4 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $4 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $4 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $4 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 447 history records