Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:49:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4E 0x4e30…da8b other 236 markets active 1h ago coverage 128d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$68 (-0%) realized −$68 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate4%9W / 227L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$201per market
Trades / day10.1pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$16
14 days−$28
30 days−$38
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% −$36
sports 25% −$20
politics 8% −$8
culture 6% −$6
economics 5% −$4
crypto 5% −$3
world 3% −$2
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 76 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 180 -0.2% -9.7% 2% 0% -9.7%
all 236 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 74% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×1.32 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.05 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

128d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$68
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses9 / 227
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)236 / 236
History coverage128d
Avg bet$201
Trades / day10.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 236 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 18 $133 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $100 $0 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $272 −$1 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 17 $322 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $475 −$1 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $339 −$1 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 16 $284 −$1 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $183 −$1 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $115 $0 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $211 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 16 $178 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $154 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $203 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $116 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $637 −$1 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $169 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $208 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $110 $0 -0%
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 14 $230 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $530 −$1 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 14 $353 −$1 -0%
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 14 $102 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $372 $0 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $106 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $322 −$1 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $313 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $813 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $136 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $53 $0 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $252 $0 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $245 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $241 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $171 $0 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 11 $208 −$1 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 10 $235 −$1 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $213 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 09 $211 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $543 −$1 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 09 $234 −$1 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $519 −$1 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $332 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $266 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 08 $552 −$1 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 08 $126 $0 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $451 −$1 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 07 $511 −$1 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $185 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $491 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $545 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 04 $57 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $49 38m
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $50 2h
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $50 3h
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $50 4h
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $50 6h
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $50 8h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $50 12h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $50 13h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $50 16h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $50 17h
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $50 22h
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $50 23h
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 96¢ $42 23h
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $8 25h
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $50 26h
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $50 28h
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $50 29h
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $50 31h
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $51 33h
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $51 34h
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $51 36h
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $51 37h
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $51 39h
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $51 41h
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $51 43h
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $51 46h
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $51 47h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $51 2d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $51 2d
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 98¢ $51 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1344 history records