Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T20:16:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4E 0x4e2e…a0ea world 8 markets active 0h ago coverage 7d
RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ bot/MM pace (135 trades/day) — uncopyable
Total PnL −$24 (-1%) realized −$24 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +235% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +158% what you keep after slip
Net edge+158%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate14%1W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$316per market
Trades / day135.2pace
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 68% +$8
other 32% −$15
economics 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)+203.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +235.2% +203.3% 14% 14% -14.0%
≤30d 7 +235.2% +203.3% 14% 14% -14.0%
≤90d 7 +235.2% +203.3% 14% 14% -14.0%
all 7 +235.2% +203.3% 14% 14% -14.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover135.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +203.3% 14% -14.0%
10% ← realistic here +174.2% 14% -22.2%
15% +147.7% 14% -29.8%
20% +123.5% 14% -36.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +235% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
59.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$4 · ×2.25 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.37 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized−$24
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses1 / 6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)7 / 8
History coverage7d
Avg bet$316
Trades / day135.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? Yes 91¢ 92¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? Jun 24 $40 $0 -0%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 26, 2026? Jun 24 $138 $0 -0%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026? Jun 23 $13 $0 -0%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $1,528 +$8 +0%
Will Wyndham Clark lead the 2026 U.S. Open following the first round? Jun 19 $21 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 52 and 52.5 million views on day Jun 19 $55 −$15 -27%
Will one person dissent the July Fed decision? Jun 18 $8 −$6 -77%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes 91¢ $9 3m
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 91¢ $9 4m
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes 91¢ $42 7m
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 91¢ $12 7m
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 91¢ $30 7m
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes 91¢ $5 27m
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes 91¢ $32 28m
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes 91¢ $0 28m
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes 91¢ $0 28m
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes 91¢ $0 28m
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes 91¢ $0 28m
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes 91¢ $0 29m
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes 91¢ $0 29m
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 91¢ $5 29m
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 91¢ $33 31m
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes 91¢ $42 33m
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 91¢ $42 34m
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes 91¢ $42 35m
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 91¢ $42 37m
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes 90¢ $2 1h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes 89¢ $40 1h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 89¢ $40 1h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes 90¢ $0 1h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes 90¢ $0 1h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes 90¢ $0 1h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes 90¢ $0 1h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes 89¢ $40 1h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 89¢ $40 1h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes 90¢ $0 1h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes 90¢ $0 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.95 · official $2.46 (match) · 934 history records