Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T02:19:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4E 0x4e2a…9553 world 43 markets active 2h ago coverage 491d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$12 (-0%) realized −$12 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate29%12W / 29L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$73per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$14now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$3
14 days−$3
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 38% $0
world 37% −$3
sports 25% −$9
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-12.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.9% -10.4% 17% 0% -10.2%
≤30d 22 -1.0% -10.4% 27% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 37 -0.8% -10.2% 27% 0% -9.6%
all 41 -3.2% -12.4% 29% 0% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.4% 0% -9.9%
10% -20.8% 0% -18.5%
15% -28.4% 0% -26.4%
20% -35.4% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 56% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.27 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

491d coverage
Net worth$14
Realized−$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses12 / 29
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions2
Markets (closed)41 / 43
History coverage491d
Avg bet$73
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 41 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? No 68¢ 68¢ $14 $14 +$0 (+0%)
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? No 97¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $64 −$1 -2%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 23 $58 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 21 $38 −$1 -4%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 19 $59 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $41 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $99 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $67 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $23 $0 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 13 $39 $0 +1%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $2 $0 +4%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 11 $24 −$1 -3%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $91 $0 -0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 09 $33 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $21 −$1 -3%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $2 $0 -12%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $82 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $82 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 05 $23 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 30 $45 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 29 $42 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 28 $81 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 25 $45 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 24 $85 +$2 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 23 $43 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 21 $6 −$1 -11%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 20 $12 $0 +3%
Will Alberta join the US? May 20 $38 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 17 $41 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 27 $286 $0 -0%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 26 $288 +$1 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $58 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 25 $134 $0 +0%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 24 $307 $0 +0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $41 −$1 -1%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 23 $308 $0 +0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $307 $0 +0%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 16 $1 $0 -8%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 40-45% of the vote in the South Korea election? Jun 07 $2 $0 +4%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2025? May 19 $2 $0 +3%
Florida Gulf Coast vs. Stetson Mar 20 $9 −$9 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 68¢ $3 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 68¢ $24 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 68¢ $41 1h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 45¢ $33 7h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 47¢ $24 9h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 47¢ $10 9h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 31¢ $13 13h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 31¢ $13 15h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $39 19h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $39 23h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 48¢ $30 25h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 48¢ $30 26h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 83¢ $8 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 83¢ $19 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 83¢ $9 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 86¢ $38 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $20 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $20 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 51¢ $33 5d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 51¢ $11 5d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 51¢ $44 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 5¢ $3 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $21 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $16 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $37 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $44 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13.81 · official $13.60 (match) · 177 history records