Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:15:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
4E 0x4e27…1c22 crypto 773 markets active 12h ago coverage 457d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ Covers last 457d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$180 (-2%) realized −$178 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate95%730W / 42L
Drawdown27%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day5.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$15
7 days−$42
14 days−$13
30 days−$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 55% +$169
world 29% +$35
other 10% −$24
tech 3% −$16
politics 2% −$1
economics 0% $0
finance 0% $0
sports 0% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 65 -3.9% -13.1% 68% 2% -12.8%
≤30d 178 -2.6% -11.8% 84% 1% -9.8%
≤90d 234 -3.2% -12.5% 84% 0% -10.0%
all 772 -0.6% -10.0% 95% 1% -8.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 1% -8.1%
10% -18.6% 0% -16.9%
15% -26.5% 0% -25.0%
20% -33.7% 0% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 70% · top 2 88% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.14 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.69 per $1 lost it wins $2.69
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

457d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized−$178
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses730 / 42
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)772 / 773
History coverage457d ⚠
Avg bet$13
Trades / day5.8
Drawdown27%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 772 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Arc launch a token by December 31 2027? Yes 98¢ 66¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-33%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $108 −$3 -3%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $245 −$12 -5%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 17? Jun 16 $20 $0 -0%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.40 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 15 $17 +$1 +3%
Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $175 Week of June 15 2026 Jun 15 $15 −$8 -49%
Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (LOW) $126 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 15 $4 $0 +2%
Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $420 Week of June 15 2026 Jun 15 $16 $0 -1%
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (HIGH) $203 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 15 $1 $0 -5%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.60 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 15 $2 −$1 -76%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.60 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 15 $2 $0 -28%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.70 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 15 $1 $0 -52%
Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (HIGH) $1,170 Week of June 15 20 Jun 15 $1 $0 +13%
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (HIGH) $202 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 15 $9 $0 -0%
Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (LOW) $3.00 Week of June 15 Jun 15 $19 $0 -0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $115 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Solana be above $120 on June 14? Jun 14 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,100 on June 14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $72,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be greater than $1.60 on June 14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be greater than $110 on June 14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.60 on June 14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Will Mishal Al-Ahmad Al-Jaber Al-Sabah sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July Jun 14 $83 −$1 -2%
Will Switzerland be the highest-scoring team in Group B during the Gro Jun 14 $11 $0 -1%
Will Canada be the highest-scoring team in Group B during the Group St Jun 14 $14 $0 -2%
Will Pete Hegseth sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 14 $47 $0 +0%
Will King Abdullah II sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 14 $40 −$10 -25%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 13? Jun 13 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $100 and $110 on June 13? Jun 13 $6 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.50 on June 13? Jun 13 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $70,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be greater than $1.50 on June 13? Jun 13 $2 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $110 on June 13? Jun 13 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be greater than $1.50 on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $100 on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $70,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.40 on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.70 on June 11? Jun 11 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $72,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,200 on June 11? Jun 11 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be greater than $1.60 on June 11? Jun 11 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be greater than $110 on June 11? Jun 11 $5 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $50 12h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $53 19h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $70 19h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $73 33h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 15¢ $74 34h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 17? SELL No 81¢ $16 36h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 17? BUY No 81¢ $16 36h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 17? SELL Yes 18¢ $3 36h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 17? BUY Yes 17¢ $3 36h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $81 46h
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.40 Week of June 15 2026? SELL No 87¢ $17 47h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $90 2d
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.40 Week of June 15 2026? BUY No 84¢ $17 2d
Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $175 Week of June 15 2026 SELL No 40¢ $8 2d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $36 2d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $10 2d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $8 2d
Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (LOW) $126 Week of June 15 2026? SELL Yes 20¢ $4 2d
Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (LOW) $126 Week of June 15 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $4 2d
Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $420 Week of June 15 2026 SELL No 81¢ $16 2d
Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $175 Week of June 15 2026 BUY No 77¢ $15 2d
Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $420 Week of June 15 2026 BUY No 81¢ $16 2d
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (HIGH) $203 Week of June 15 2026? SELL No 6¢ $1 2d
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (HIGH) $203 Week of June 15 2026? BUY No 6¢ $1 2d
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.60 Week of June 15 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 2d
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.60 Week of June 15 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 2d
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.70 Week of June 15 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 2d
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.60 Week of June 15 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 2d
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.70 Week of June 15 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 2d
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.60 Week of June 15 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.27 · official $3.08 (match) · 3500 history records