Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T19:00:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
4E 0x4e27…0ec3 politics 112 markets active 2d ago coverage 110d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$89 (+0%) realized +$89 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate10%11W / 101L
Drawdown23%max
Avg bet$183per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 41% −$10
other 40% −$15
crypto 7% −$2
sports 5% +$114
world 2% $0
economics 2% $0
tech 2% $0
culture 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-4.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 18 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 101 -0.4% -9.9% 4% 3% -9.5%
all 112 +5.3% -4.7% 10% 9% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.7% 9% -9.1%
10% -13.8% 8% -17.8%
15% -22.2% 6% -25.8%
20% -29.8% 6% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$1 · ×23.27 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.56 per $1 lost it wins $2.56
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

110d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$89
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses11 / 101
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)112 / 112
History coverage110d
Avg bet$183
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown23%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 112 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 15 $20 $0 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 14 $49 $0 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $35 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $19 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 27 $559 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $203 $0 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $200 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 26 $500 −$1 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 24 $188 $0 -0%
Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 24 $344 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in May? May 22 $177 $0 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 22 $173 $0 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 21 $185 $0 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? May 21 $201 $0 -0%
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 20 $205 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 20 $179 $0 -0%
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 18 $164 $0 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 17 $148 $0 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 17 $187 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 15 $201 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 14 $213 $0 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 13 $345 $0 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? May 13 $161 $0 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 12 $152 $0 -0%
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 11 $154 $0 -0%
Will Kyle Langford win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 11 $200 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $144 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 10 $171 $0 -0%
Will Ugo Humbert win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 09 $174 −$5 -3%
Will Solana reach $110 in April? May 09 $31 $0 +0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 27 $211 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 27 $174 $0 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? Apr 26 $215 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 26 $354 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 24 $219 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $193 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 22 $199 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 22 $169 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 22 $186 $0 -0%
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $181 $0 -0%
Will Scott Bessent be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 20 $185 $0 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 19 $164 $0 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $161 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in April? Apr 18 $218 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 17 $176 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $204 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April? Apr 16 $162 $0 -0%
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 15 $213 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 15 $160 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $186 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $20 37h
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $20 45h
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $27 2d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $27 2d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $35 5d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $35 7d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $19 8d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $19 9d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $22 9d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $22 11d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $152 19d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $152 20d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $203 20d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $203 20d
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $200 20d
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $200 21d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $158 21d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $158 21d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $193 22d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $193 23d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $188 23d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $188 23d
Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $184 23d
Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $184 24d
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in May? SELL No 100¢ $177 25d
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $177 25d
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $173 25d
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $173 25d
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $185 26d
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $185 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 301 history records