Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T11:37:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

Chart Positions 326 History 63 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$777
7 days−$2,609
14 days−$2,609
30 days+$15,937
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 82¢ 90¢ $24,911 $27,450 +$2,540 (+10%)
Netanyahu out by June 30? No 87¢ 98¢ $22,148 $25,052 +$2,904 (+13%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 55¢ 85¢ $14,668 $22,576 +$7,908 (+54%)
Trump out as President before 2027? No 82¢ 90¢ $16,633 $18,399 +$1,765 (+11%)
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.0% or lower before 2027? No 16¢ 93¢ $2,430 $13,990 +$11,561 (+476%)
Will there be 8 or more earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30? Yes 39¢ 100¢ $4,724 $12,159 +$7,435 (+157%)
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? No 61¢ 84¢ $8,650 $11,914 +$3,264 (+38%)
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? No 81¢ 86¢ $10,391 $11,056 +$666 (+6%)
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027? No 86¢ 95¢ $9,600 $10,589 +$989 (+10%)
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes 21¢ 78¢ $2,508 $9,327 +$6,819 (+272%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of June? No 85¢ 100¢ $7,807 $9,188 +$1,381 (+18%)
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.75% or lower before 2027? No 26¢ 95¢ $2,120 $7,736 +$5,616 (+265%)
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? No 83¢ 92¢ $6,626 $7,405 +$779 (+12%)
Will Paramount close Warner Bros acquisition? Yes 85¢ 76¢ $6,939 $6,248 −$691 (-10%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 37¢ 15¢ $13,761 $5,602 −$8,159 (-59%)
Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor? No 87¢ 94¢ $5,075 $5,541 +$467 (+9%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 89¢ 94¢ $5,258 $5,520 +$262 (+5%)
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? No 60¢ 64¢ $5,027 $5,394 +$367 (+7%)
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.5% or lower before 2027? No 64¢ 95¢ $3,560 $5,287 +$1,727 (+49%)
Will Gold (GC) settle at >$6,200 in June? No 86¢ 99¢ $4,523 $5,205 +$682 (+15%)
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? No 89¢ 94¢ $4,548 $4,821 +$274 (+6%)
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? No 93¢ 97¢ $4,155 $4,338 +$183 (+4%)
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31? Yes 62¢ 60¢ $4,288 $4,130 −$158 (-4%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 82¢ 85¢ $3,845 $3,987 +$143 (+4%)
Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026? No 95¢ 100¢ $3,520 $3,705 +$185 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $65 by end of June? Jun 12 $1,265 +$692 +55%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,200 by end of June? Jun 12 $109 +$76 +70%
Will the Los Angeles Rams make the playoffs? Jun 12 $14 +$9 +64%
Will Chelsea finish first in UCL league phase? Jun 12 $2 $0 +3%
Will the Denver Broncos be the first team to reach 50 total points sco Jun 12 $1 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 08 $159 −$159 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 08 $3,847 −$2,587 -67%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 08 $16,108 −$6,527 -40%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Jun 08 $2,299 −$138 -6%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Jun 08 $413 −$413 -100%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? Jun 08 $1,043 +$128 +12%
Will James Talarico and Ken Paxton be the candidates for the Texas Sen Jun 08 $2,247 +$1,651 +74%
Will James Talarico and John Cornyn be the candidates for the Texas Se Jun 08 $1,863 +$1,418 +76%
Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? Jun 08 $1,459 +$432 +30%
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? Jun 08 $1,607 +$2,809 +175%
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? May 21 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 21 $1,077 +$975 +90%
Nothing Ever Happens: April May 14 $587 +$980 +167%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2027? May 14 $1,958 +$426 +22%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2027? May 14 $1,800 +$1,710 +95%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? May 14 $3,803 −$3,101 -82%
Will April 2026 be the 4th or lower hottest on record? May 14 $115 −$115 -100%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30? May 14 $218 −$218 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? May 14 $6,862 +$17,928 +261%
Will Vladimir Putin be the next leader out before 2027? May 10 $269 +$2 +1%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be the next leader out before 2027? May 10 $622 +$8 +1%
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? May 10 $1,967 +$105 +5%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? May 10 $1,682 −$241 -14%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? May 10 $810 +$7,320 +904%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30? May 07 $4,704 +$4,747 +101%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? May 04 $14,137 +$3,181 +22%
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026? May 04 $5,027 −$1,418 -28%
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz in April? May 04 $1,174 +$67 +6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? May 04 $5,963 +$2,317 +39%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st? May 04 $153 +$930 +608%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th? May 03 $5,463 +$7,992 +146%
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30? May 01 $4,896 +$504 +10%
Will Gustavo Petro be charged in the US by April 30? May 01 $2 +$38 +1663%
Netanyahu out by April 30? May 01 $5 +$896 +18635%
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by April 30, 2026? May 01 $1,019 +$3,491 +343%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? May 01 $5,665 +$1,110 +20%
Iran leadership change by April 30? May 01 $5,259 +$200 +4%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? May 01 $2,494 +$1,513 +61%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? May 01 $1,270 −$9 -1%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? May 01 $31,645 +$28,751 +91%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026? May 01 $9,706 +$194 +2%
Will there be 8 or more earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwi Apr 27 $1,620 +$8,706 +537%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 24, 2026? Apr 26 $2,362 +$174 +7%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 23, 2026? Apr 26 $189 −$189 -100%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? Apr 26 $12,032 +$103 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 41% +$43,720
other 32% +$63,819
politics 14% +$10,920
sports 8% +$1,147
economics 3% +$6,639
culture 1% −$24
tech 1% +$1,257
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Seattle Seahawks win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 45d
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $16 45d
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st? BUY Yes 34¢ $22 45d
Will the Seattle Seahawks win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY Yes 11¢ $6 45d
Will the Seattle Seahawks win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY Yes 11¢ $11 45d
Will the Seattle Seahawks win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY Yes 11¢ $12 45d
Will the Seattle Seahawks win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 45d
Will the Seattle Seahawks win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 45d
Will the Seattle Seahawks win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 45d
Will the Seattle Seahawks win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY Yes 11¢ $4 45d
Will the Seattle Seahawks win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 45d
Will the Buffalo Bills win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 92¢ $248 45d
Will the Buffalo Bills win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 92¢ $497 45d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,500 by end of June? BUY No 97¢ $130 45d
Will April 2026 be the 4th or lower hottest on record? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 45d
Will April 2026 be the 4th or lower hottest on record? BUY Yes $113 45d
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st? BUY Yes 34¢ $21 45d
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th? BUY Yes 58¢ $157 45d
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st? BUY Yes 34¢ $15 45d
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st? BUY Yes 35¢ $11 45d
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $50 45d
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $17 45d
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $50 45d
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz in April? BUY No 94¢ $509 45d
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz in April? BUY No 94¢ $340 45d
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz in April? BUY No 95¢ $256 45d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 75¢ $21 45d
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 97¢ $80 45d
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st? BUY Yes 35¢ $35 45d
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 97¢ $87 45d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)+92.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +16.3% +5.2% 67% 53% -16.8%
≤30d 24 +20.8% +9.3% 62% 54% +20.0%
≤90d 63 +112.8% +92.6% 76% 48% +19.8%
all 63 +112.8% +92.6% 76% 48% +19.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover275.7 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +92.6% 48% +19.8%
10% +74.1% 43% +8.4%
15% ← realistic here +57.3% 38% -2.1%
20% +41.9% 35% -11.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $392,728.70 · official $392,797.97 (match) · 3500 history records