Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T08:58:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

4E 0x4e23…05ca other 4 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip

Net edge-13%after slip

Net WR0%break-even

Win rate75%3W / 1L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$310per market

Trades / day8.0pace

Kalshi-fit50%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +0%

net ROI/market (all)-9.3%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	4	+0.3%	-9.3%	75%	0%	-9.3%
≤30d	4	+0.3%	-9.3%	75%	0%	-9.3%
≤90d	4	+0.3%	-9.3%	75%	0%	-9.3%
all	4	+0.3%	-9.3%	75%	0%	-9.3%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover8.0 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-9.3%	0%	-9.3%
10%	-18.0%	0%	-18.0%
15%	-25.9%	0%	-25.9%
20%	-33.2%	0%	-33.2%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 52% · top 2 77% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +0% too few recent

Fragile wins

100% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×1.99 per $1 lost it wins $1.99

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized+$1

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)75%

Wins / losses3 / 1

Open positions0

Markets (closed)4 / 4

History coverage1d

Avg bet$310

Trades / day8.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 4 Trades

no open positions

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will US annex any territory in 2026?	Jun 23	$314	+$2	+0%
US military draft authorized in 2026?	Jun 23	$307	+$2	+0%
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky seen together before 2027?	Jun 22	$305	+$3	+1%
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 30?	Jun 22	$314	−$3	-1%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will US annex any territory in 2026?	SELL No	93¢	$315	1h
Will US annex any territory in 2026?	BUY No	92¢	$314	3h
US military draft authorized in 2026?	SELL No	94¢	$309	3h
US military draft authorized in 2026?	BUY No	93¢	$307	6h
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky seen together before 2027?	SELL No	91¢	$308	22h
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky seen together before 2027?	BUY No	90¢	$305	23h
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 30?	SELL No	94¢	$310	23h
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 30?	BUY No	95¢	$314	25h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 8 history records