Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:46:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4E 0x4e22…dcb8 crypto 757 markets active 14h ago coverage 81d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$157 (-8%) realized −$157 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR59%break-even
Win rate59%447W / 310L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day9.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days+$5
14 days−$3
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% −$163
other 3% −$41
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +59%
net ROI/market (all)-16.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 +1.5% -8.2% 65% 57% -4.6%
≤30d 76 -8.1% -16.9% 59% 55% -11.1%
≤90d 757 -7.6% -16.4% 59% 59% -19.4%
all 757 -7.6% -16.4% 59% 59% -19.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.4% 59% -19.4%
10% -24.4% 57% -27.1%
15% -31.7% 53% -34.2%
20% -38.4% 32% -40.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

81d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$157
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses447 / 310
Open positions0
Markets (closed)757 / 757
History coverage81d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day9.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 757 Trades
no open positions (64 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$1 -25%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$1 -18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$2 -31%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$2 -38%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$2 -30%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$4 +83%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$5 +105%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$3 -51%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$2 -40%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$4 +73%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$1 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$4 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 10 $1 +$1 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 10 $1 +$1 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 09 $1 +$1 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 09 $2 −$1 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 09 $1 +$1 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 09 $2 −$1 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 09 $4 −$1 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET SELL Down 43¢ $4 13h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 13h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET SELL Down 45¢ $4 17h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 17h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET SELL Down 42¢ $4 17h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $5 17h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET SELL Down 57¢ $5 17h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 18h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET SELL Down 37¢ $3 19h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $5 19h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET SELL Down 41¢ $4 28h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $5 28h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 42h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $5 42h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET SELL Down 28¢ $3 44h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 44h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET SELL Down 38¢ $3 44h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $5 44h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $5 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET SELL Down 66¢ $1 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET SELL Down 66¢ $5 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $5 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET SELL Down 46¢ $4 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET SELL Down 74¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET SELL Down 90¢ $1 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1568 history records