Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T20:17:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4E 0x4e20…d6dd sports 37 markets active 6d ago coverage 221d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$31,292 (+11%) realized +$34,914 · open −$3,622
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate43%15W / 20L
Whale WR33%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7,570per market
Trades / day6.3pace
Fees−$4,211est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$16,137now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$4,113
14 days−$4,435
30 days+$67,757
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 43% +$76,211
economics 35% −$36,616
other 15% −$9,196
crypto 4% −$2,557
politics 2% +$1,260
tech 1% +$554
world 0% −$486
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-13.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -25.1% -32.2% 0% 0% -32.2%
≤30d 17 -7.5% -16.3% 41% 41% +35.5%
≤90d 20 +0.4% -9.2% 50% 50% +35.2%
all 35 -4.0% -13.2% 43% 43% +1.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.3 tr/day
realistic slip~12%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.2% 43% +1.9%
10% ← realistic here -21.5% 37% -7.9%
15% -29.1% 23% -16.8%
20% -36.0% 17% -24.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 79% · top 2 87% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +49% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +13% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 33% (≥$9,825) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -5% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
27.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$5,759 vs −$2,679 · ×2.15 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.61 per $1 lost it wins $1.61
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

221d coverage
Net worth$16,137
Realized+$34,914
Unrealized−$3,622
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses15 / 20
Whale WR (big bets)33%
Est. fees paid−$4,211
Open positions2
Markets (closed)35 / 37
History coverage221d
Avg bet$7,570
Trades / day6.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 11¢ $9,969 $8,173 −$1,796 (-18%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 10¢ $9,790 $7,964 −$1,826 (-19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? Jun 23 $16,412 −$4,113 -25%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $467 +$56 +12%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $896 −$486 -54%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $506 −$500 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $710 +$662 +93%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $54 −$54 -99%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $506 +$288 +57%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $1,435 −$81 -6%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1,013 −$550 -54%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $77,818 +$68,095 +88%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $205 −$200 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1,006 −$1,000 -99%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $2,229 +$554 +25%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $23,819 +$6,791 +28%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $2,693 −$507 -19%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $963 +$1,737 +180%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the NBA Western Conference Finals? May 31 $5,521 −$2,936 -53%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the NBA Western Conference Finals? May 29 $1,786 +$1,175 +66%
Will the New York Knicks win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? May 26 $2,067 +$530 +26%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 21 $3,221 +$1,404 +44%
Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair? Jan 30 $11,666 −$9,678 -83%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Jan 21 $15,519 −$3,842 -25%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? Jan 18 $38,381 −$23,363 -61%
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? Jan 05 $16,821 +$3,387 +20%
Will Luís Marques Mendes win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? Dec 16 $2,000 −$274 -14%
Will Nasry Juan Asfura Zablah win the 2025 Honduras presidential elect Dec 05 $581 +$176 +30%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 05 $9,825 −$2,557 -26%
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 31? Dec 04 $568 −$9 -2%
Will José Antonio Kast win the Chilean presidential election? Dec 02 $81 +$29 +35%
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? Dec 02 $2,000 −$218 -11%
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting? Nov 22 $10,315 −$2,539 -25%
UFC 322: Shevchenko vs. Weili (Women's Flyweight, Main Card) Nov 20 $200 +$157 +79%
Will Trump sign the Epstein Disclosure Bill on November 19? Nov 20 $3,109 +$1,338 +43%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? Nov 20 $5,581 −$582 -10%
UFC 322: Makhachev vs. Della Maddalena (Welterweight, Main Card) Nov 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? SELL Yes 43¢ $2,722 5d
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? SELL Yes 40¢ $2,556 6d
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? SELL Yes 43¢ $1 6d
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? SELL Yes 43¢ $13 6d
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? SELL Yes 43¢ $69 6d
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? SELL Yes 43¢ $12 6d
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? SELL Yes 44¢ $4,386 6d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $467 7d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $10,047 8d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $97 8d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 8d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 8d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $16 8d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $12 8d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 8d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $56 8d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 8d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $14 8d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 8d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 8d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $34 8d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $246 8d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $4 8d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 8d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $18 8d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 8d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $151 8d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 8d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 8d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $16,137.19 · official $16,137.19 (match) · 1464 history records