Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T20:50:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4E 0x4e1e…8820 sports 102 markets active 3h ago coverage 115d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$19 (-9%) realized −$19 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate63%64W / 37L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$2
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 57% −$18
other 24% −$2
weather 17% $0
culture 2% $0
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-20.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 -0.1% -9.6% 68% 0% -11.5%
≤30d 54 -3.3% -12.5% 80% 0% -12.3%
≤90d 54 -3.3% -12.5% 80% 0% -12.3%
all 101 -11.9% -20.3% 63% 20% -18.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.3% 20% -18.2%
10% -27.9% 18% -26.0%
15% -34.9% 16% -33.2%
20% -41.3% 14% -39.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
69% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -22% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

115d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$19
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses64 / 37
Open positions1
Markets (closed)101 / 102
History coverage115d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 101 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 28 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Databricks have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? Jun 22 $37 −$1 -4%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? Jun 22 $1 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 22? Jun 22 $1 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 21? Jun 21 $1 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 36°C or higher on June 21 Jun 21 $1 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? Jun 21 $1 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 42°C on June 21? Jun 21 $1 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 42°C or higher on June 21? Jun 21 $1 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C or higher on June 18 Jun 21 $1 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C or higher on June 21? Jun 21 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 27°C on June 21? Jun 21 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 21? Jun 21 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C on June 21? Jun 21 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C or below on June 18? Jun 18 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 18? Jun 18 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 18? Jun 18 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 18? Jun 18 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 18? Jun 18 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C or higher on June 18? Jun 18 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 18? Jun 18 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 17? Jun 18 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C or higher on June 17? Jun 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C or higher on June 17? Jun 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 37°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 17? Jun 17 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 104°F or higher on June 11? Jun 12 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 27°C on June 11? Jun 12 $1 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on June 11? Jun 12 $1 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be 63°F or below on June Jun 12 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 36°C or higher on June 11? Jun 12 $1 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 16°C or higher on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 19°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C or higher on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $1 $0 +0%
Will "The Witness" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? Jun 09 $1 $0 +0%
Will "Michael Jackson: The Verdict" be the top US Netflix show this we Jun 09 $1 $0 +1%
Will "GOAT" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? Jun 09 $1 $0 +1%
Will "Michael Jackson: The Verdict" be the top global Netflix show thi Jun 09 $1 $0 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -99%
Will "Scary Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 52m? Jun 08 $1 $0 +8%
Will "The Amazing Digital Circus: The Last Act" Opening Weekend Box Of Jun 08 $1 $0 +0%
Will "Obsession" 4th Weekend Box Office be between 24m and 27m? Jun 08 $1 $0 +2%
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $1 $0 +5%
Will CZ post 0-19 posts from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $1 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $1 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1 2h
Will Databricks have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 3h
Will Databricks have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $17 3h
Will Databricks have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $19 3h
Will Databricks have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 3h
Will Databricks have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $17 3h
Will Databricks have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $19 3h
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 22? SELL No 100¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $1 26h
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1 26h
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 21? SELL No 100¢ $1 26h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 36°C or higher on June 21 SELL No 100¢ $1 26h
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1 26h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 42°C on June 21? SELL No 100¢ $1 26h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 42°C or higher on June 21? SELL No 100¢ $1 26h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C or higher on June 18 SELL No 100¢ $1 26h
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 27°C on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 42°C or higher on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C or higher on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 42°C on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 36°C or higher on June 21 BUY No 100¢ $1 2d
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C or below on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $1 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.00 · official $1.00 (match) · 180 history records