Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:07:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
4E 0x4e1b…7eb7 weather 274 markets active 2d ago coverage 13d
BOTnot copyable weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (77 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$173 (-8%) realized −$173 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -34% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -49% what you keep after slip
Net edge-49%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate15%40W / 234L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day76.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$208
7 days+$69
14 days−$166
30 days−$182
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% −$182
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (77 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-40.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 167 -33.3% -39.6% 15% 14% -7.3%
≤30d 274 -34.2% -40.5% 15% 13% -21.2%
≤90d 274 -34.2% -40.5% 15% 13% -21.2%
all 274 -34.2% -40.5% 15% 13% -21.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover76.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -40.5% 13% -21.2%
10% ← realistic here -46.2% 13% -28.7%
15% -51.4% 12% -35.6%
20% -56.1% 12% -41.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -34% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -42% → late -26% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$30 vs −$6 · ×5.09 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$173
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)15%
Wins / losses40 / 234
Open positions0
Markets (closed)274 / 274
History coverage13d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day76.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 274 Trades
no open positions (227 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on June 15? Jun 15 $6 +$44 +733%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 +$46 +866%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C or below on June 15? Jun 15 $25 +$26 +105%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $24 +$26 +112%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 15? Jun 15 $20 +$29 +144%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $13 +$37 +285%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 15? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C or higher on June 15? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on June 15? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 15 $10 +$40 +404%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 15? Jun 15 $35 −$34 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 15? Jun 15 $27 −$26 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 15? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 15? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 35°C or higher on June 15 Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju Jun 14 $19 −$19 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 15? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 36°C on June 15? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 36°C on June 15? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on Ju Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $4 +$27 +607%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 14? Jun 14 $15 +$36 +239%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 15? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 14? Jun 14 $24 +$26 +108%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $18 +$32 +185%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 15? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 15? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on June 15? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 15? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 37°C on June 15? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on June 14? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 35°C or higher on June 14 Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 14? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 35°C on June 15? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 37°C on June 14? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 38°C on June 14? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 15? Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 15? Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 35°C on June 15? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 14? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 36°C on June 14? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 14? Jun 14 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 15? BUY Yes 30¢ $0 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C or higher on June 15? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on June 15? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2d
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 15? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 2d
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 15? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 15? BUY Yes 19¢ $4 2d
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 15? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on June 15? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2d
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on June 15? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on June 15? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 15? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 15? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 15? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 15? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 15? BUY Yes 41¢ $0 2d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 15? BUY Yes 41¢ $3 2d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 15? BUY Yes 41¢ $7 2d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 15? BUY Yes 41¢ $7 2d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 15? BUY Yes 19¢ $16 2d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 15? BUY Yes 46¢ $24 2d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 15? BUY Yes 41¢ $3 2d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 15? BUY Yes 52¢ $27 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 15? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 15? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 2d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 35°C or higher on June 15 BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju BUY Yes 39¢ $16 2d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 15? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2d
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 36°C on June 15? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 36°C on June 15? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on Ju BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1024 history records