Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T07:33:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

4E 0x4e1a…b6dd crypto 19 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d

UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$248 (-51%) realized −$248 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -64% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -72% what you keep after slip

Net edge-72%after slip

Net WR22%break-even

Win rate22%4W / 14L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$26per market

Trades / day33.0pace

Fees−$0est.

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +22%

net ROI/market (all)-67.4%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	18	-64.0%	-67.4%	22%	22%	-57.3%
≤30d	18	-64.0%	-67.4%	22%	22%	-57.3%
≤90d	18	-64.0%	-67.4%	22%	22%	-57.3%
all	18	-64.0%	-67.4%	22%	22%	-57.3%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover33.0 tr/day

realistic slip~13%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	-67.4%	22%	-57.3%
10% ← realistic here	-70.5%	22%	-61.4%
15%	-73.4%	17%	-65.1%
20%	-76.0%	17%	-68.5%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 45% · top 2 74% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -53% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -64% · $-wt -53% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -28% → late -100% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$22 vs −$24 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.26 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized−$248

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)22%

Wins / losses4 / 14

Est. fees paid−$0

Open positions0

Markets (closed)18 / 19

History coverage1d

Avg bet$26

Trades / day33.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 18 Trades

no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET	Jun 27	$10	−$10	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET	Jun 27	$26	−$26	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET	Jun 27	$27	−$25	-94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET	Jun 27	$26	−$26	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET	Jun 27	$19	−$17	-94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET	Jun 27	$27	−$27	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET	Jun 27	$4	−$4	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET	Jun 27	$26	−$25	-94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET	Jun 27	$79	−$79	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET	Jun 27	$26	+$6	+24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET	Jun 27	$52	+$39	+74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET	Jun 27	$26	−$26	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET	Jun 27	$26	−$25	-96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET	Jun 27	$26	−$25	-95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET	Jun 27	$31	+$16	+51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET	Jun 27	$26	+$26	+98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26?	Jun 27	$10	−$10	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET	Jun 27	$10	−$10	-96%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET	BUY Down	53¢	$5	20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET	BUY Down	52¢	$5	20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET	BUY Up	48¢	$26	27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET	BUY Up	10¢	$27	29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET	BUY Down	5¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET	BUY Down	7¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET	BUY Down	9¢	$3	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET	BUY Down	10¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET	BUY Up	51¢	$26	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET	BUY Down	5¢	$27	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET	BUY Up	17¢	$26	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET	BUY Up	26¢	$4	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET	BUY Up	5¢	$27	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET	BUY Up	22¢	$26	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET	BUY Up	42¢	$26	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET	SELL Up	61¢	$32	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET	BUY Up	46¢	$26	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET	SELL Up	99¢	$60	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET	BUY Up	41¢	$26	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET	SELL Down	52¢	$31	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET	BUY Down	41¢	$26	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET	BUY Down	50¢	$26	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET	BUY Down	48¢	$26	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET	BUY Down	29¢	$26	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET	SELL Up	76¢	$47	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET	BUY Up	50¢	$26	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET	BUY Up	39¢	$5	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET	SELL Down	66¢	$52	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET	BUY Down	31¢	$26	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET	BUY Down	27¢	$5	2h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 43 history records