Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T13:40:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
4E 0x4e1a…1e2a crypto 634 markets active 0h ago coverage 69d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,110 (+2%) realized +$1,108 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate71%450W / 183L
Whale WR78%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$94per market
Trades / day26.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$302now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$251
7 days+$251
14 days+$347
30 days+$266
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$240
politics 0% +$53
world 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-12.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 131 -1.8% -11.1% 79% 24% -8.9%
≤30d 239 -1.9% -11.2% 79% 28% -9.0%
≤90d 633 -3.2% -12.4% 71% 44% -9.1%
all 633 -3.2% -12.4% 71% 44% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.4% 44% -9.1%
10% ← realistic here -20.8% 27% -17.8%
15% -28.4% 17% -25.7%
20% -35.5% 9% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
37% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 78% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +6% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$26 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

69d coverage
Net worth$302
Realized+$1,108
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses450 / 183
Whale WR (big bets)78%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)633 / 634
History coverage69d
Avg bet$94
Trades / day26.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 633 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Up 99¢ 100¢ $300 $302 +$2 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 20 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 16 $201 −$168 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 16 $406 +$7 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 16 $601 +$8 +1%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 16 $804 +$57 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $206 −$205 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 16 $403 +$38 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 16 $209 −$205 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 16 $7 +$5 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 16 $506 −$9 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 16 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 16 $311 +$9 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 16 $316 +$12 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 16 $512 +$16 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 16 $207 +$30 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 16 $105 +$6 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 16 $411 +$15 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 16 $305 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 16 $105 −$4 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 16 $55 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 16 $431 +$23 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 16 $105 −$4 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 16 $613 +$38 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 16 $247 +$28 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 16 $100 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 16 $858 −$108 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 16 $311 +$15 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 16 $108 +$53 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$6 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 16 $226 +$16 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 16 $301 +$20 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 16 $201 +$8 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 15 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 15 $110 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 15 $703 −$53 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 15 $101 +$11 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 15 $506 +$20 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 15 $226 +$25 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 15 $631 +$40 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 15 $105 +$7 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 15 $511 +$95 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 15 $107 +$39 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 15 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 15 $102 +$28 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 15 $642 +$60 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 15 $206 +$10 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 15 $217 +$25 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 15 $303 +$65 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 15 $511 −$131 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 15 $516 +$22 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $200 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET SELL Up 16¢ $32 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $100 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $101 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $100 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $105 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $601 16m
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes 0¢ $0 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $862 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $401 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $100 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $202 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $102 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $100 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $101 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $5 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $100 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $100 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $101 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $101 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $204 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $7 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $200 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $100 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $103 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET SELL Up 20¢ $32 47m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $301.52 · official $240.91 · 2577 history records