Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T05:19:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4E 0x4e19…ba6c politics 174 markets active 2h ago coverage 142d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$1,927 (+1%) realized +$1,927 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate23%40W / 132L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown22%max
Avg bet$1,213per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Fees−$26est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$489now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$19
14 days−$43
30 days−$91
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 48% −$80
other 36% −$295
sports 11% +$2,273
economics 2% −$6
culture 1% −$1
world 1% +$1
crypto 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-6.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 37 -1.4% -10.8% 11% 5% -9.7%
≤90d 111 -4.8% -13.8% 6% 4% -9.2%
all 172 +3.9% -6.0% 23% 12% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.0% 12% -8.7%
10% -15.0% 12% -17.4%
15% -23.2% 10% -25.4%
20% -30.7% 8% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 79% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,649) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +8% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$70 vs −$7 · ×9.84 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.05 per $1 lost it wins $3.05
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

142d coverage
Net worth$489
Realized+$1,927
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses40 / 132
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$26
Open positions2
Markets (closed)172 / 174
History coverage142d
Avg bet$1,213
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown22%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 172 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 100¢ 100¢ $307 $307 −$0 (-0%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,700 in June? No 99¢ 100¢ $181 $181 +$1 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 21 $3,000 −$3 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $949 −$1 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $333 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 17 $1,281 −$2 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 17 $1,328 −$2 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $1,959 −$3 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $3,347 −$3 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 15 $1,583 −$2 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 15 $1,558 −$2 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $1,524 −$2 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $2,151 −$5 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $3,226 −$3 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $3,337 −$4 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 10 $1,394 −$2 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 09 $621 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $2,165 −$3 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $2,642 −$3 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 07 $3,575 −$4 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $4,466 −$6 -0%
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) Jun 06 $71 −$71 -100%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 04 $1,213 −$2 -0%
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) Jun 04 $60 +$44 +73%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 04 $1,788 −$2 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $742 −$1 -0%
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 03 $85 +$68 +79%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $2,803 −$4 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in May? Jun 02 $188 $0 +0%
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 01 $584 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 01 $615 −$1 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $658 −$1 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? May 31 $311 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the second-largest company in the world by market cap o May 31 $401 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 28 $249 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? May 27 $295 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 25 $1,985 −$2 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? May 25 $1,504 −$2 -0%
Will Beijing Guoan FC win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $62 −$62 -100%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 23 $1,226 −$2 -0%
Minnesota Twins vs. Boston Red Sox May 23 $39 +$52 +134%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 23 $1,361 −$1 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 22 $414 −$1 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 22 $419 $0 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 22 $515 −$1 -0%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers May 22 $80 −$80 -100%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 20 $749 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 18 $1,788 −$2 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $4,777 −$5 -0%
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 18 $873 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 18 $2,167 −$3 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 17 $977 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $307 1h
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $277 24h
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $278 25h
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $230 3d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $230 3d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $332 3d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $333 4d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $608 4d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $608 4d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $624 4d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $624 5d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $623 5d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $624 5d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $649 5d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $650 6d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $682 6d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $683 6d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $683 6d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $684 7d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $639 7d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $640 7d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $499 9d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $500 9d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $555 10d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $556 10d
Will Ethereum reach $2,700 in June? BUY No 99¢ $181 10d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $717 11d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $718 11d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $779 12d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $780 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $488.71 · official $488.71 (match) · 609 history records