Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T15:48:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
4E 0x4e18…7bb9 other 130 markets active 1h ago coverage 235d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$55 (+1%) realized +$55 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate75%97W / 33L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$47per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$30
7 days+$79
14 days+$169
30 days+$129
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$10
sports 27% +$162
crypto 26% −$40
politics 1% −$46
culture 1% −$24
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-4.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 56 +7.5% -2.7% 86% 41% -6.4%
≤30d 67 +13.2% +2.4% 84% 46% -5.2%
≤90d 82 +16.2% +5.1% 83% 52% -1.3%
all 130 +5.9% -4.2% 75% 51% -8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.2% 51% -8.3%
10% -13.4% 37% -17.1%
15% -21.7% 28% -25.1%
20% -29.4% 16% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
32% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +12% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$36 · ×0.35 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

235d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$55
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses97 / 33
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions0
Markets (closed)130 / 130
History coverage235d
Avg bet$47
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 130 Trades
no open positions (14 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 20 $25 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 20 $25 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 20 $25 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 20 $25 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 20 $26 +$5 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 20 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 20 $25 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 20 $25 +$2 +8%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $107 +$13 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 19 $25 −$24 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 19 $26 +$5 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 19 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 19 $20 +$7 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 19 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 19 $25 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 19 $30 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 19 $26 +$4 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 19 $25 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 19 $25 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 19 $25 +$5 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 19 $25 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 19 $25 +$4 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 19 $25 +$5 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 19 $25 +$1 +5%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $51 −$23 -45%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $100 +$10 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 18 $26 +$17 +65%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $90 +$10 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 18 $100 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 18 $100 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$5 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$2 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$4 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 18 $26 +$13 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 18 $25 +$5 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 18 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 18 $25 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 18 $25 $0 +2%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $50 +$50 +100%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 17 $25 +$3 +14%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $100 +$8 +8%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $76 −$33 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 16 $25 +$1 +6%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $96 +$4 +4%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $78 +$22 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $25 +$9 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 16 $25 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 16 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$5 +93%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET SELL Down 85¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $25 2h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $120 13h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $107 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET SELL Up 5¢ $1 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $25 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET SELL Up 83¢ $30 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $26 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $100 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $20 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $25 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $25 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $25 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET SELL Up 58¢ $5 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $5 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET SELL Down 61¢ $30 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $25 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $25 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $25 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $25 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $25 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $25 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 311 history records