Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T05:52:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4E 0x4e16…7727 other 49 markets active 2h ago coverage 368d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$8 (-1%) realized −$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate23%11W / 37L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$38now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 50% −$5
other 28% $0
politics 8% $0
culture 6% −$4
economics 3% $0
weather 2% $0
crypto 2% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +0.2% -9.4% 17% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 10 +0.4% -9.2% 20% 10% -10.9%
≤90d 14 +0.5% -9.1% 21% 7% -10.3%
all 48 -2.4% -11.7% 23% 2% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.7% 2% -10.3%
10% -20.2% 0% -18.9%
15% -27.9% 0% -26.7%
20% -35.0% 0% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 61% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.31 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

368d coverage
Net worth$38
Realized−$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses11 / 37
Open positions1
Markets (closed)48 / 49
History coverage368d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 48 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? No 95¢ 95¢ $38 $38 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $39 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 20 $67 +$1 +1%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 19 $14 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 19 $34 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $34 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $38 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 27 $39 −$1 -2%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $7 +$1 +14%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 25 $70 −$6 -9%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 25 $38 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 25 $32 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 24 $60 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 23 $43 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 21 $38 +$1 +3%
Zohran Mamdani gets the most first-choice votes in the 2025 New York C Aug 10 $0 $0 -100%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on December 31? Jul 13 $8 $0 -0%
Will 'A Minecraft Movie' have the best domestic opening weekend in 202 Jul 13 $15 −$3 -22%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 15? Jul 12 $9 $0 -0%
Will XRP dip to $1.4 in July? Jul 12 $8 $0 +0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jul 12 $9 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $100 in July? Jul 12 $8 $0 +0%
Will Franco Parisi win the Chilean presidential election? Jul 11 $9 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 5k-10k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 11 $8 $0 +0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jul 11 $23 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Jul 11 $8 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be greater than 150% on August 15? Jul 10 $8 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 105–119 times July 4–11? Jul 10 $9 $0 -1%
Will Trump deport less than 250,000? Jul 09 $8 $0 +3%
Will Trump impose large tariffs in his first 6 months? Jul 09 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 09 $38 $0 +0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? Jul 09 $8 $0 -0%
Will Daniel Baluta be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jul 09 $8 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? Jul 08 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 08 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 07 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Atlanta Falcons win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 07 $7 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 225–239 times July 4–11? Jul 07 $1 $0 -2%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Jul 07 $8 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 07 $8 $0 +0%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 06 $9 $0 +0%
Will Cristian Popescu Piedone be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jul 06 $8 $0 -0%
Will Dan Trifu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jul 06 $8 $0 +0%
Will Palmeiras win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jul 03 $8 $0 -0%
Will Zootopia 2 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jul 02 $16 $0 -2%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Jul 02 $22 $0 +1%
Will Trump deport 750,000-1,000,000 people? Jul 01 $22 $0 +0%
Will global temperature increase by between 0.95-0.99ºC in June 2025? Jul 01 $22 $0 +0%
US x Iran nuclear talks resume by Friday? Jun 23 $22 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $38 1h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 14¢ $2 25h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 26h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 50¢ $27 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 50¢ $8 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 49¢ $34 3d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 78¢ $37 3d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 78¢ $37 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $2 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $5 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $6 4d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $34 4d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $34 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $28 5d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $6 5d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $34 5d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $7 5d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $7 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $38 6d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $38 6d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL No 96¢ $4 27d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 8¢ $8 28d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 7¢ $7 28d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 40¢ $8 28d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 40¢ $25 28d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 40¢ $33 28d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 54¢ $26 29d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 54¢ $3 29d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 65¢ $34 29d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $37.88 · official $37.88 (match) · 130 history records