Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T00:43:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4E 0x4e15…d643 world 32 markets active 0h ago coverage 466d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$17 (-2%) realized −$17 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate38%12W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days−$5
30 days−$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 81% −$8
other 9% +$1
politics 4% $0
sports 3% −$8
crypto 2% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-11.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +0.2% -9.3% 14% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 21 -4.5% -13.6% 24% 0% -10.8%
≤90d 21 -4.5% -13.6% 24% 0% -10.8%
all 32 -2.7% -11.9% 38% 3% -11.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.9% 3% -11.6%
10% -20.4% 3% -20.0%
15% -28.1% 3% -27.8%
20% -35.1% 0% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.13 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.19 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

466d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$17
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses12 / 20
Open positions0
Markets (closed)32 / 32
History coverage466d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 32 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $34 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 21 $34 $0 +1%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 20 $43 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 20 $72 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 18 $34 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $3 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $2 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 16 $31 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $46 −$7 -16%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $39 +$1 +2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $38 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $10 +$1 +10%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 10 $38 $0 +1%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 08 $4 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $39 −$1 -2%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $40 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 06 $20 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $15 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $18 $0 -1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 04 $41 −$2 -6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 04 $10 $0 +0%
Will Taylor Fritz win Wimbledon 2025? Dec 14 $1 $0 +2%
Will Frances Black win the Irish Presidential Election? Dec 14 $2 $0 +6%
Will Inter Milan win the UEFA Champions League? Jun 01 $19 −$8 -41%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2700 and $2800 on May 23? May 22 $4 $0 -1%
Will Elon Musk buy TikTok before July? May 21 $10 $0 +1%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the Eastern Conference? May 08 $2 $0 +1%
Will Friedrich Merz be the next Chancellor of Germany? Mar 31 $1 $0 +38%
Will Trump pardon Julian Assange in his first 100 days? Mar 27 $12 $0 -0%
Will Trump say "bigly" by March 28? Mar 25 $12 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $77000 and $79000 on Mar 21? Mar 19 $12 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 14-21? Mar 19 $12 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 84¢ $14 28m
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 84¢ $20 28m
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 84¢ $34 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 74¢ $35 31h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $34 33h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $31 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $28 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $3 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 47¢ $19 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 47¢ $13 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 47¢ $31 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 14¢ $12 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 14¢ $7 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 74¢ $34 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 74¢ $34 4d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $3 4d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $3 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 5d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $9 7d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $22 7d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $31 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 19¢ $7 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 76¢ $2 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 76¢ $35 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 80¢ $4 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 80¢ $35 8d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $13 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 98 history records