Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T02:10:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4E 0x4e15…820d world 36 markets active 2h ago coverage 466d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate56%20W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 69% +$2
other 19% −$1
finance 4% $0
tech 4% $0
sports 2% $0
politics 2% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +3.4% -6.5% 50% 25% -8.9%
≤30d 15 -0.2% -9.7% 47% 7% -9.1%
≤90d 16 -0.1% -9.7% 44% 6% -9.2%
all 36 -2.1% -11.5% 56% 3% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.5% 3% -9.3%
10% -19.9% 0% -18.0%
15% -27.7% 0% -25.9%
20% -34.8% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 54% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.25 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

466d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses20 / 16
Open positions0
Markets (closed)36 / 36
History coverage466d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 36 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 19 $46 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $49 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $50 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $8 +$1 +14%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 26 $35 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 25 $13 $0 -3%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 25 $60 +$2 +4%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 24 $2 $0 -9%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 23 $36 −$2 -4%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 23 $46 +$1 +2%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 22 $80 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 21 $66 +$3 +5%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 21 $37 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 20 $17 −$1 -6%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 20 $47 −$2 -4%
Will Alberta join the US? May 19 $37 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Yoon Suk Yeol in 2025? Dec 23 $2 $0 +4%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July? Dec 14 $2 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90k in May? Jun 03 $1 $0 +2%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jun 03 $2 $0 +2%
Will Anders Arborelius be the next pope? May 09 $2 $0 +1%
Will federal spending decrease by $750b-1t between Q4 2024 and Q2 2025 Apr 04 $16 $0 -0%
Will Another team win the UEFA Europa League? Apr 03 $2 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk buy TikTok before July? Apr 02 $14 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Bob Menendez in his first 100 days? Apr 01 $16 $0 +0%
Will Walmart buy TikTok? Apr 01 $16 $0 +0%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by March 31? Mar 31 $16 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 550-574 times March 28 - April 4? Mar 31 $16 $0 -1%
March Madness: Will 0 teams seeded #1 make the Final 4? Mar 31 $16 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet 600-624 times March 21-28? Mar 29 $15 +$1 +5%
Will Elon tweet 700 or more times March 14-21? Mar 23 $15 $0 +2%
Will Elon tweet 675-699 times March 14-21? Mar 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon tweet 575-599 times March 7-14? Mar 15 $17 +$1 +5%
Will egg prices be between $5.25 and $5.50 in February? Mar 13 $15 $0 +1%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the Eastern Conference? Mar 11 $1 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win La Liga? Mar 10 $17 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $7 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $39 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $46 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $49 8h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $49 10h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $8 14h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $8 17h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $42 19h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $42 20h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 26h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 26h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 26h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 26h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 26h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $8 30h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 42¢ $2 23d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 42¢ $2 23d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 42¢ $31 23d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 42¢ $35 23d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 37¢ $13 24d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 38¢ $13 24d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 86¢ $40 24d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 86¢ $8 24d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 84¢ $47 24d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 31¢ $2 25d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 34¢ $2 25d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 67¢ $7 25d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 67¢ $7 25d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 61¢ $13 25d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? SELL Yes 21¢ $5 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 123 history records