Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:05:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4E 0x4e13…e968 crypto 426 markets active 16h ago coverage 84d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$3,549 (-2%) realized −$3,008 · open −$541
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate20%81W / 332L
Whale WR5%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$458per market
Trades / day15.6pace
Fees−$218est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$1,296now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$127
7 days−$354
14 days−$667
30 days−$2,985
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 56% −$58
other 21% −$882
crypto 6% −$123
sports 6% −$1,476
world 6% −$309
finance 3% −$1,533
tech 2% −$148
weather 1% −$75
culture 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-16.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 123 +5.1% -4.9% 4% 4% -9.8%
≤30d 283 -5.0% -14.0% 18% 14% -11.2%
≤90d 413 -8.1% -16.8% 20% 17% -11.4%
all 413 -8.1% -16.8% 20% 17% -11.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.8% 17% -11.4%
10% -24.8% 13% -19.9%
15% -32.0% 10% -27.7%
20% -38.7% 8% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 5% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -9% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$19 · ×1.34 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.33 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

84d coverage
Net worth$1,296
Realized−$3,008
Unrealized−$541
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses81 / 332
Whale WR (big bets)5%
Est. fees paid−$218
Open positions6
Markets (closed)413 / 426
History coverage84d
Avg bet$458
Trades / day15.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 413 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 50¢ 92¢ $600 $1,107 +$507 (+84%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 50¢ 8¢ $600 $93 −$507 (-84%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $121 $87 −$34 (-28%)
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026? Yes 62¢ 59¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-5%)
Will Elon Musk post 640-679 tweets in July 2026? Yes 3¢ 4¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+33%)
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? No 52¢ 50¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will Elon Musk post 760-799 tweets in July 2026? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-20%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $7,824 −$18 -0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 17 $37,780 $0 +0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $165 −$41 -25%
Will Steve Witkoff attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? Jun 17 $2 $0 +0%
Will Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremo Jun 17 $34 −$1 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 17? Jun 17 $3 $0 -3%
Will JD Vance attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? Jun 17 $8 −$1 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 $0 -0%
Will King Abdullah II attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? Jun 17 $7 −$1 -11%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 40°C or higher on June 17? Jun 17 $19 $0 -2%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $51 −$11 -21%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? Jun 17 $78 −$2 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 17? Jun 17 $2 $0 -5%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 17 $1 $0 -10%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on Jun Jun 17 $34 −$2 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $24 −$1 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 17? Jun 17 $31 −$1 -2%
Will Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? Jun 17 $15 −$1 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $3 $0 -12%
Will Pete Hegseth attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? Jun 17 $35 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on June 17? Jun 17 $9 $0 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 17? Jun 17 $20 −$5 -24%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 17? Jun 17 $4 $0 -3%
Will Shehbaz Sharif attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? Jun 17 $14 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C or below on June 17? Jun 17 $7 −$1 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 16 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 16? Jun 16 $28 −$20 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 16 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 16 $7 +$12 +159%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 16? Jun 16 $10 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 16? Jun 16 $3 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $2 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on June 16? Jun 16 $2 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $9 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $7 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $42 −$1 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $6 −$1 -15%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C or below on June 16? Jun 16 $31 −$5 -15%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $8 −$4 -49%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $22 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on June 16? Jun 16 $9 $0 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 16? Jun 16 $4 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $0 $0 -17%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 16 $67,170 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 15? Jun 15 $23 −$1 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 15? Jun 15 $3 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on June 15? Jun 15 $14 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 15? Jun 15 $38 −$1 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) AND Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 AND Will Cr BUY 34¢ $41 16h
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $26 19h
Will Steve Witkoff attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? SELL No 13¢ $2 19h
Will Steve Witkoff attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? BUY No 13¢ $2 19h
Will Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremo SELL No 59¢ $30 19h
Will Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremo BUY No 61¢ $30 19h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 17? SELL Yes 42¢ $3 19h
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $98 19h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 17? BUY Yes 42¢ $3 19h
Will JD Vance attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? SELL No 9¢ $7 19h
Will JD Vance attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? BUY No 10¢ $8 19h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 17? SELL Yes 44¢ $1 19h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 17? BUY Yes 43¢ $1 19h
Will King Abdullah II attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? SELL Yes 8¢ $6 19h
Will King Abdullah II attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? BUY Yes 9¢ $7 19h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 40°C or higher on June 17? SELL No 60¢ $8 19h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 40°C or higher on June 17? BUY No 60¢ $8 19h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $19 20h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 40°C or higher on June 17? SELL No 61¢ $11 20h
Will Masoud Pezeshkian attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? SELL No 85¢ $76 20h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 40°C or higher on June 17? BUY No 61¢ $11 20h
Will Masoud Pezeshkian attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? BUY No 87¢ $78 20h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 17? SELL Yes 43¢ $2 20h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 17? BUY Yes 44¢ $2 20h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju SELL Yes 30¢ $1 20h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju BUY Yes 32¢ $1 20h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on Jun SELL No 65¢ $32 20h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 17? SELL No 49¢ $12 20h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on Jun BUY No 67¢ $34 20h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 17? BUY No 49¢ $12 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,296.43 · official $1,296.43 (match) · 1929 history records