Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T19:08:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
4E 0x4e12…176c other 109 markets active 2d ago coverage 317d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$384 (+7%) realized +$384 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate63%66W / 39L
Drawdown71%max
Avg bet$49per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit22%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$9
7 days+$124
14 days+$176
30 days+$227
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 71% +$85
politics 20% +$267
sports 3% +$99
crypto 2% +$6
world 2% −$23
tech 1% +$15
economics 1% −$17
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +86.1% +68.4% 89% 78% +25.0%
≤30d 17 +50.2% +35.9% 76% 71% +24.4%
≤90d 23 +40.3% +26.9% 74% 70% +19.9%
all 105 +0.0% -9.5% 63% 57% -2.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 57% -2.0%
10% -18.2% 42% -11.4%
15% -26.1% 31% -20.0%
20% -33.3% 24% -27.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +32% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late +18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$28 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.4 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

317d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$384
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses66 / 39
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)105 / 109
History coverage317d
Avg bet$49
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown71%
Kalshi-fit22%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 105 Trades
no open positions (34 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $100 +$9 +9%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? AND Will United Jun 13 $10 +$54 +529%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $20 +$23 +114%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $35 +$12 +35%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $42 +$14 +33%
Will England win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $26 +$3 +13%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $35 +$6 +18%
Will Venezuela win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $25 +$31 +124%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $36 +$35 +97%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $50 +$17 +34%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $101 +$68 +67%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-27? May 27 $20 +$16 +79%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 25 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $20 +$21 +101%
Will CA River Plate win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $8 −$8 -98%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $25 −$25 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Apr 13 $3 −$3 -98%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? Apr 13 $627 +$231 +37%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-07? Apr 08 $12 +$10 +86%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-07? Apr 08 $12 +$17 +140%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-08? Apr 07 $12 −$12 -99%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Apr 07 $259 +$27 +11%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on February 17? Feb 18 $2 $0 +19%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? Feb 17 $15 −$13 -86%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-02-13? Feb 13 $16 −$16 -100%
Men's Group B - Finland vs. Sweden Feb 13 $14 +$2 +15%
US fertility rate up in Q3 2025? Feb 12 $7 +$7 +104%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-01-12? Jan 12 $60 −$60 -100%
Will SS Lazio win on 2026-01-11? Jan 11 $75 +$95 +126%
Will SS Lazio win on 2026-01-07? Jan 07 $45 −$45 -100%
Will Atalanta BC win on 2026-01-07? Jan 07 $29 +$19 +64%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-01-01? Jan 01 $150 −$150 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2025-12-29? Dec 29 $28 −$28 -100%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2025-12-28? Dec 29 $20 +$21 +104%
Will Leeds United FC win on 2025-12-28? Dec 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Will SSC Napoli win on 2025-12-28? Dec 28 $30 +$9 +29%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2025-12-27? Dec 27 $150 +$30 +20%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2025-12-27? Dec 27 $45 +$17 +39%
Will Morocco win on 2025-12-26? Dec 26 $41 −$41 -100%
Will Cameroon win on 2025-12-24? Dec 24 $40 +$21 +52%
Will Burkina Faso win on 2025-12-24? Dec 24 $25 +$21 +85%
Will Sporting CP win on 2025-12-23? Dec 23 $60 +$13 +21%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2025-12-23? Dec 23 $75 +$33 +45%
Will Tunisia win on 2025-12-23? Dec 23 $50 +$32 +63%
Will Nigeria win on 2025-12-23? Dec 23 $75 +$20 +27%
Will Senegal win on 2025-12-23? Dec 23 $226 +$37 +16%
Another GTA VI trailer released in 2025? Dec 23 $31 −$31 -100%
Will DR Congo win on 2025-12-23? Dec 23 $100 +$36 +36%
Will Atalanta BC win on 2025-12-21? Dec 22 $100 +$56 +56%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 92¢ $100 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY 25¢ $26 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? AND BUY 59¢ $30 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY 40¢ $21 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY 50¢ $25 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $43 3d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? AND Will United BUY 15¢ $5 3d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? AND Will United BUY 15¢ $5 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $20 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 94¢ $48 4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $35 4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? SELL Yes 86¢ $41 5d
Will England win on 2026-06-10? SELL Yes 97¢ $30 5d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? BUY Yes 40¢ $5 5d
Will England win on 2026-06-10? BUY Yes 85¢ $26 5d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? BUY Yes 73¢ $37 5d
Will Venezuela win on 2026-06-09? BUY Yes 44¢ $25 6d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-09? BUY Yes 84¢ $35 6d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-09? BUY Yes 61¢ $30 6d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-06? BUY Yes 50¢ $36 9d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-06? BUY Yes 74¢ $50 9d
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-27? SELL Yes 100¢ $20 19d
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-27? SELL Yes 82¢ $16 19d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 41¢ $20 22d
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-27? BUY Yes 50¢ $20 22d
Will CA River Plate win on 2026-05-24? BUY Yes 43¢ $8 23d
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-24? BUY Yes 54¢ $5 23d
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-24? BUY Yes 49¢ $5 23d
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-24? BUY Yes 49¢ $15 23d
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-24? BUY Yes 58¢ $20 23d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 216 history records