trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? | No | 98¢ | 97¢ | $3 | $3 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | $2 | $2 | +$0 (+1%) |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | $1 | $1 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | $1 | $1 | +$0 (+2%) |
| Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | $1 | $1 | +$0 (+1%) |
| S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on December 2? | Down | 50¢ | 0¢ | $1 | $0 | −$1 (-100%) |
| Will HotSchedules be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on November 14? | No | 60¢ | 0¢ | $2 | $0 | −$2 (-100%) |
| Will Trump say "Brazil" this week? (November 17 – 23) | Yes | 85¢ | 0¢ | $1 | $0 | −$1 (-100%) |
| US/Israel strike Yemen by March 31? | Yes | 24¢ | 0¢ | $1 | $0 | −$1 (-100%) |
| Will Max Verstappen win the 2024 F1 season? | No | 34¢ | 0¢ | $2 | $0 | −$2 (-100%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? | May 30 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30? | Apr 30 | $1 | $0 | +1% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | Apr 28 | $1 | $0 | +0% |
| Karoline Leavitt out by March 31? | Apr 14 | $1 | $0 | +0% |
| Nothing Ever Happens: December | Apr 14 | $1 | $0 | +8% |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? | Apr 14 | $1 | $0 | +2% |
| US/Israel strike Yemen by March 31? | Mar 30 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will Autozone (AZO) beat quarterly earnings? | Dec 30 | $1 | +$1 | +133% |
| Will Ângela Maryah win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? | Dec 10 | $43 | $0 | +0% |
| Will José Cardoso win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? | Dec 10 | $29 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Pedro Tinoco de Faria win the 2026 Portugal presidential election | Dec 09 | $46 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Aristides Teixeira win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? | Dec 06 | $12 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $400 end of November? | Dec 06 | $1 | $0 | +30% |
| Will Mamdani get over 50% of the vote in the general mayoral election? | Dec 06 | $1 | +$1 | +89% |
| Will António Filipe win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? | Dec 05 | $45 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Raul Perestrello win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? | Dec 04 | $25 | $0 | +0% |
| S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on December 2? | Dec 02 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will André Pestana win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? | Dec 02 | $13 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Lainey Wilson win Entertainer of the Year at the 59th annual CMA | Nov 25 | $1 | $0 | +35% |
| Will Trump say "Brazil" this week? (November 17 – 23) | Nov 20 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will HotSchedules be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on November | Nov 13 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Kamala Harris wins the popular vote? | Oct 31 | $96 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Oct 31 | $96 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Max Verstappen win the 2024 F1 season? | Oct 10 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | 1 | +1.3% | -8.3% | 100% | 0% | -8.3% |
| ≤90d | 7 | -12.6% | -20.9% | 86% | 0% | -19.0% |
| all | 24 | -8.4% | -17.1% | 50% | 17% | -10.3% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -17.1% | 17% | -10.3% |
| 10% | -25.1% | 17% | -18.9% |
| 15% | -32.3% | 8% | -26.7% |
| 20% | -38.9% | 8% | -33.9% |