Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T19:42:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4E 0x4e03…beaa other 201 markets active 2h ago coverage 26d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$453 (-6%) realized −$446 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate22%38W / 134L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day28.8pace
Fees−$64est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$124now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$200
7 days+$204
14 days+$185
30 days−$71
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 55% +$375
other 25% −$320
politics 10% −$57
finance 6% −$51
world 2% −$14
tech 2% −$11
crypto 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 +37.6% +24.5% 48% 48% +6.3%
≤30d 172 +1.0% -8.7% 22% 19% -10.6%
≤90d 172 +1.0% -8.7% 22% 19% -10.6%
all 172 +1.0% -8.7% 22% 19% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover28.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.7% 19% -10.6%
10% ← realistic here -17.4% 18% -19.1%
15% -25.4% 18% -26.9%
20% -32.7% 17% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late +17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$36 vs −$11 · ×3.28 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

26d coverage
Net worth$124
Realized−$446
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses38 / 134
Est. fees paid−$64
Open positions9
Markets (closed)172 / 201
History coverage26d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day28.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 172 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: England (-1.5) England 63¢ 62¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+22%)
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $8 $6 −$2 (-25%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-7%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-39%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-54%)
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Ghana? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Exact Score: Colombia 2 - 1 DR Congo? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-9%)
Exact Score: Panama 1 - 2 Croatia? Yes 12¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 25 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 23 $101 +$45 +45%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -97%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 AND Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina O/U 0 Jun 23 $41 +$50 +123%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 23 $101 +$77 +76%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 22 $34 −$3 -8%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 2 Austria? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -97%
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) AND Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay O/U 0.5 AND Jun 22 $41 +$33 +82%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Belgium O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 21 $39 −$39 -99%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain O/U 7.5 Corners Jun 21 $20 −$20 -99%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $41 +$30 +73%
Spread: Japan (-2.5) Jun 21 $49 +$40 +83%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 20 $29 +$19 +66%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $5 +$1 +14%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $5 +$1 +16%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Netherlands O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 20 $40 −$39 -99%
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 5.5 Corners AND United Jun 19 $40 +$41 +102%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $3 −$3 -98%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners AND Jun 18 $51 +$47 +92%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $30 −$30 -99%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 11.5 Total Corners AND Czechia Jun 18 $35 −$3 -7%
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -97%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $14 +$7 +52%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $5 +$33 +649%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $51 −$50 -99%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 1.5 AND Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? AND Jun 18 $20 −$2 -9%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $51 −$50 -99%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 11.5 Total Corners AND Portugal vs. DR Co Jun 18 $30 +$30 +98%
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 1 Panama? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $5 +$50 +980%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 1.5 AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 17 $20 −$2 -8%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 17 $50 −$50 -99%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $20 $0 -1%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 0.5 AND Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $20 −$5 -24%
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) AND Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $8 +$20 +250%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 AND Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $23 +$18 +78%
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 16 $10 +$12 +116%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 16 $50 +$31 +63%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 AND Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 AND Wil Jun 16 $30 −$2 -7%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran O/U 4.5 Corners Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 4.5 Corners Jun 15 $101 +$53 +53%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $232 −$62 -27%
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) Jun 15 $21 −$20 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 15 $232 −$230 -99%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 4.5 Corners Jun 15 $101 +$3 +3%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 1.5 Corners Jun 15 $61 +$68 +112%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) AND Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 AND Will Swe Jun 15 $51 +$132 +258%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 63¢ $101 1h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) SELL Portugal 98¢ $146 1h
Exact Score: Panama 1 - 2 Croatia? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 4h
Exact Score: Colombia 2 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 4h
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Ghana? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 4h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 4h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 67¢ $101 12h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Colombia O/U 0.5 AND Panama vs. Croatia: Croati BUY 54¢ $51 12h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 56¢ $101 24h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 13¢ $4 24h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 2 Austria? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 29h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Austria 61¢ $30 34h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 AND Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina O/U 0 BUY 44¢ $41 35h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Belgium O/U 5.5 Corners BUY Over 61¢ $39 2d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain O/U 7.5 Corners BUY Over 54¢ $20 2d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score AND Will Belgium win on 20 BUY 51¢ $20 2d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) SELL Spain 95¢ $70 2d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $8 2d
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) AND Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay O/U 0.5 AND BUY 54¢ $41 2d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 54¢ $41 2d
Spread: Japan (-2.5) BUY Japan 54¢ $49 2d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 5.5 Corners BUY Over 60¢ $29 3d
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 1.5 AND Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 0.5 AND BUY 7¢ $10 3d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $6 3d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 3¢ $6 3d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Netherlands O/U 5.5 Corners BUY Over 53¢ $40 3d
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND W BUY 21¢ $41 3d
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $3 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY 43¢ $46 4d
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 3.5 Corners AND Scotland vs. Morocco BUY 39¢ $41 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $123.99 · official $183.99 · 815 history records