Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T16:37:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4E 0x4e03…faf9 crypto 39 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$8 (-3%) realized −$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate49%19W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day16.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)+6.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 +18.1% +6.9% 49% 41% -10.0%
≤30d 39 +18.1% +6.9% 49% 41% -10.0%
≤90d 39 +18.1% +6.9% 49% 41% -10.0%
all 39 +18.1% +6.9% 49% 41% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +6.9% 41% -10.0%
10% -3.4% 31% -18.6%
15% -12.7% 26% -26.5%
20% -21.3% 21% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 66% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +18% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late +27% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$5 · ×1.04 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses19 / 20
Open positions0
Markets (closed)39 / 39
History coverage4d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day16.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 39 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 29? Jun 29 $4 +$37 +871%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10AM ET Jun 29 $46 +$22 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 29 $35 −$35 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 29 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 29 $10 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 29 $7 +$4 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 29 $1 +$1 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 29 $1 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 26? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 26 $1 +$1 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 26 $4 +$4 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 26 $5 +$4 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 26 $1 $0 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 26 $26 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 26 $10 −$1 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 26 $5 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin above 60,000 on June 26, 9AM ET? Jun 26 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 26 $1 $0 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7AM ET Jun 26 $3 +$1 +38%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 25? Jun 25 $1 +$9 +815%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 25 $3 +$2 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 25 $1 $0 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 25 $6 −$1 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 25 $7 −$3 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 25 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 25 $1 $0 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 25 $1 $0 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 29? SELL Up 37¢ $42 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 29? BUY Up 3¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 29? BUY Up 8¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10AM ET SELL Up 26¢ $34 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $18 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10AM ET SELL Up 61¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10AM ET SELL Up 60¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10AM ET SELL Up 60¢ $23 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $12 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET SELL Up 68¢ $12 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $35 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $16 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET SELL Down 81¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET SELL Down 31¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $8 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $4 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET SELL Down 97¢ $9 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET SELL Up 69¢ $1 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 89 history records