Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T12:48:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
4D 0x4dff…645e crypto 34 markets active 1h ago coverage 613d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$724 (-8%) realized −$724 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate97%30W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$277per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$2,593now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 53% −$729
crypto 46% +$6
tech 0% $0
economics 0% $0
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 6 +0.3% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
all 31 -0.2% -9.7% 97% 0% -19.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -19.1%
10% -18.3% 0% -26.8%
15% -26.2% 0% -33.9%
20% -33.4% 0% -40.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 47% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$729 · ×0.0 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

613d coverage
Net worth$2,593
Realized−$724
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)97%
Wins / losses30 / 1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)31 / 34
History coverage613d
Avg bet$277
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 31 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 18? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $1,287 $1,286 −$1 (-0%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 18? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $1,180 $1,181 +$1 (+0%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? Yes 99¢ 99¢ $125 $126 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 in March? Apr 03 $25 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March? Apr 03 $29 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $400 in March? Apr 03 $30 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in March? Apr 03 $37 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $200 in March? Apr 03 $41 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? Apr 03 $44 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $800 in February? Mar 05 $14 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,400 in February? Mar 05 $51 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,200 in February? Mar 05 $53 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in February? Mar 05 $88 $0 +0%
Will OpenAi have the top AI model on September 30? Feb 19 $5 $0 +1%
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.10 in September? Feb 19 $5 $0 +0%
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.0% or less in August? Feb 19 $5 $0 +1%
Will Mistral AI have the top AI model on September 30? Feb 19 $5 $0 +0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Feb 19 $6 $0 +0%
Will Meta have the top AI model on September 30? Feb 19 $6 $0 +0%
Will Ap win the most seats in the next Norwegian parliamentary electio Feb 19 $7 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $100 in September? Feb 19 $7 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2000 in September? Feb 19 $38 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200K in September? Feb 19 $58 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in September? Feb 19 $64 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $300 in May? Jun 04 $46 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $200k in May? Jun 04 $116 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in May? Jun 04 $165 $0 +0%
Dogecoin all time high in April? May 17 $6 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $300 in April? May 17 $11 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110k in April? May 17 $79 +$1 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in April? May 17 $80 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $120k in April? May 17 $150 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by March 31? Apr 01 $544 +$2 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Oct 24 $5,025 −$729 -14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,287 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 99¢ $125 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,180 1h
Will Ethereum dip to $200 in March? BUY No 100¢ $41 105d
Will Ethereum dip to $400 in March? BUY No 100¢ $30 105d
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $29 105d
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $37 105d
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $25 105d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $44 105d
Will Ethereum reach $4,400 in February? BUY No 100¢ $51 118d
Will Ethereum reach $4,200 in February? BUY No 100¢ $53 118d
Will Ethereum dip to $800 in February? BUY No 99¢ $14 118d
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in February? BUY No 100¢ $88 118d
Will Ethereum dip to $2000 in September? BUY No 100¢ $38 282d
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in September? BUY No 100¢ $64 282d
Will Ap win the most seats in the next Norwegian parliamentary electio BUY Yes 100¢ $7 282d
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.10 in September? BUY No 100¢ $5 282d
Will Solana dip to $100 in September? BUY No 100¢ $7 282d
Will OpenAi have the top AI model on September 30? BUY No 99¢ $5 282d
Will Mistral AI have the top AI model on September 30? BUY No 100¢ $5 282d
Will Meta have the top AI model on September 30? BUY No 100¢ $6 282d
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.0% or less in August? BUY No 99¢ $5 282d
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after September 2025 meeting? BUY No 100¢ $6 282d
Will Bitcoin reach $200K in September? BUY No 100¢ $58 282d
Will Bitcoin reach $200k in May? BUY No 100¢ $116 397d
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $165 397d
Will Solana reach $300 in May? BUY No 99¢ $46 397d
Will Bitcoin reach $120k in April? BUY No 100¢ $150 422d
Will Bitcoin reach $110k in April? BUY No 99¢ $79 422d
Will Solana reach $300 in April? BUY No 100¢ $11 422d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,592.60 · official $2,592.60 (match) · 72 history records