trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 7 | -20.8% | -28.3% | 29% | 29% | +23.9% |
| ≤30d | 9 | -9.6% | -18.2% | 44% | 44% | +21.4% |
| ≤90d | 22 | -29.2% | -36.0% | 36% | 32% | -13.2% |
| all | 22 | -29.2% | -36.0% | 36% | 32% | -13.2% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -36.0% | 32% | -13.2% |
| 10% | -42.1% | 23% | -21.5% |
| 15% | -47.7% | 9% | -29.1% |
| 20% | -52.8% | 5% | -36.0% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 17¢ | 23¢ | $150 | $200 | +$50 (+34%) |
| Germany vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score | Yes | 47¢ | 28¢ | $160 | $94 | −$66 (-41%) |
| Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 52¢ | 53¢ | $50 | $51 | +$1 (+2%) |
| Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 21¢ | 20¢ | $50 | $47 | −$3 (-6%) |
| GPT-5.6 released by July 15, 2026? | Yes | 73¢ | 72¢ | $25 | $25 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 16¢ | 11¢ | $25 | $17 | −$8 (-30%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? | Jun 29 | $351 | +$268 | +76% |
| Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 29 | $50 | −$5 | -10% |
| GPT-5.6 released by July 10, 2026? | Jun 29 | $51 | −$9 | -18% |
| Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by December 31? | Jun 29 | $101 | +$13 | +13% |
| GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? | Jun 27 | $2 | −$1 | -41% |
| Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? | Jun 25 | $25 | −$25 | -98% |
| Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? | Jun 25 | $25 | −$17 | -66% |
| San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers | Jun 03 | $101 | +$42 | +42% |
| Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by December 31? | Jun 02 | $151 | +$27 | +18% |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15? | Apr 14 | $100 | −$76 | -76% |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30? | Apr 14 | $250 | −$193 | -77% |
| Will Michigan win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? | Apr 07 | $60 | +$21 | +35% |
| US x Iran ceasefire by May 31? | Apr 06 | $100 | −$21 | -21% |
| US forces enter Iran by December 31? | Apr 05 | $250 | +$75 | +30% |
| US forces enter Iran by April 30? | Apr 05 | $450 | +$43 | +10% |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? | Apr 02 | $50 | −$8 | -17% |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | Apr 02 | $30 | −$21 | -69% |
| US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? | Apr 02 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March? | Apr 02 | $100 | −$100 | -100% |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March? | Apr 02 | $50 | −$50 | -100% |
| Cavaliers vs. Lakers | Apr 01 | $50 | +$11 | +23% |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? | Apr 01 | $70 | −$66 | -95% |