Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T22:49:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4D 0x4df9…2bf5 weather 122 markets active 2h ago coverage 117d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate97%116W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$100per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$341now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$2
14 days+$3
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% $0
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +0.1% -9.5% 86% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 66 -1.4% -10.8% 97% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 112 -1.4% -10.7% 97% 0% -9.5%
all 120 -1.2% -10.6% 97% 0% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.6% 0% -9.5%
10% -19.2% 0% -18.2%
15% -27.0% 0% -26.1%
20% -34.1% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$4 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

117d coverage
Net worth$341
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)97%
Wins / losses116 / 4
Open positions2
Markets (closed)120 / 122
History coverage117d
Avg bet$100
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 120 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 24? No 100¢ 100¢ $249 $249 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 12°C on June 24? No 100¢ 100¢ $92 $92 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 27°C on June 24? Jun 24 $254 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 22? Jun 22 $257 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 21? Jun 21 $110 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on June 21? Jun 21 $338 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 20? Jun 20 $340 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 19? Jun 19 $337 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 17? Jun 18 $338 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $87 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 15? Jun 16 $42 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 15? Jun 16 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 15? Jun 15 $251 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 14? Jun 15 $88 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 30°C on June 14? Jun 15 $25 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on June 14? Jun 15 $231 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 14? Jun 14 $110 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C on June 13? Jun 13 $285 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 13? Jun 13 $53 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C or below on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 13? Jun 13 $290 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 11? Jun 11 $275 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 11? Jun 11 $62 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 10? Jun 11 $46 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 22°C on June 10? Jun 10 $12 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 10? Jun 10 $286 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 10 $40 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 15°C on June 9? Jun 09 $118 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on June 9? Jun 09 $210 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 9? Jun 09 $11 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 72-73°F on June 8? Jun 09 $174 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on June 8? Jun 09 $165 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 7? Jun 07 $242 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on June 7? Jun 07 $95 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on June 6? Jun 07 $336 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 6? Jun 06 $330 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 13°C on June 5? Jun 05 $4 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 5? Jun 05 $330 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on June 4? Jun 04 $335 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 3? Jun 04 $43 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 3? Jun 03 $58 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 03 $282 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 2? Jun 03 $53 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 2? Jun 02 $147 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 2? Jun 02 $139 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 1? Jun 02 $51 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on June 1? Jun 02 $95 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 32°C on June 1? Jun 02 $44 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 1? Jun 01 $148 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 1? Jun 01 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on May 31? Jun 01 $92 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 19°C on May 31? Jun 01 $31 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 24? BUY No 100¢ $249 1h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 12°C on June 24? BUY No 100¢ $92 19h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 27°C on June 24? BUY No 100¢ $254 21h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $257 2d
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 21? SELL No 100¢ $61 3d
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 21? SELL No 100¢ $48 3d
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $110 3d
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $338 3d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $340 4d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $337 5d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $106 6d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $232 6d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $87 8d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $7 8d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $42 8d
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $251 9d
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $88 10d
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 30°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $25 10d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $231 10d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $110 10d
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $285 11d
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $53 11d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C or below on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $1 11d
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $290 11d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $275 13d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $62 13d
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $46 14d
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $286 14d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June BUY No 100¢ $30 14d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June BUY No 100¢ $10 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $341.22 · official $341.22 (match) · 256 history records