Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T04:36:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
4D 0x4df9…f1d8 other 24 markets active 1h ago coverage 72d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$17 (+0%) realized +$17 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate100%21W / 0L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$326per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$679now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$3
14 days+$4
30 days+$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 27% +$9
crypto 21% +$2
tech 15% +$3
other 14% +$2
culture 8% +$1
world 6% +$1
politics 3% $0
finance 3% $0
economics 2% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 15 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 21 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
all 21 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 0% -9.3%
10% -18.0% 0% -18.0%
15% -25.9% 0% -25.9%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs — no data
Profit factor
no data
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

72d coverage
Net worth$679
Realized+$17
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses21 / 0
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)21 / 24
History coverage72d
Avg bet$326
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 21 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $265 $266 +$0 (+0%)
Will Hope Scheppelman be the Republican nominee for CO-03? No 100¢ 100¢ $214 $213 −$0 (-0%)
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $200 $200 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? Jun 26 $675 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 26? Jun 26 $676 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $388 $0 +0%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $287 $0 +0%
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 Jun 16 $195 +$1 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 15 $215 $0 +0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? Jun 12 $262 +$2 +1%
Will "The Boroughs" be the top US Netflix show this week? Jun 11 $68 $0 +0%
Will annual inflation be 3.5% in May? Jun 11 $93 $0 +0%
Will the Bank of Canada announce an increase at the June meeting? Jun 11 $249 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on June 5? Jun 07 $233 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 5? Jun 07 $345 $0 +0%
Will BNB dip to $500 in May? Jun 04 $186 $0 +0%
Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (HIGH) $6.00 in May? Jun 04 $200 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on Jun 04 $284 +$1 +0%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 26 $666 +$4 +1%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 26 $661 +$3 +0%
Will Figure's F.03 robots run for at least 200 hours without failure? May 18 $141 $0 +0%
Will "Michael" score at least 25 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer? Apr 28 $306 $0 +0%
Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" 4th Weekend Box Office be between Apr 28 $356 $0 +0%
Will Microsoft (MSFT) finish week of April 13 above $320? Apr 18 $661 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $200 1h
Will Hope Scheppelman be the Republican nominee for CO-03? BUY No 100¢ $214 1h
Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $265 1h
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? BUY No 100¢ $412 7h
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? BUY No 100¢ $264 7h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $676 2d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 100¢ $287 10d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $388 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? SELL No 100¢ $216 12d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY No 100¢ $215 14d
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 BUY No 100¢ $195 14d
Will "The Boroughs" be the top US Netflix show this week? BUY No 100¢ $68 18d
Will the Bank of Canada announce an increase at the June meeting? BUY No 100¢ $249 18d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? BUY No 99¢ $262 18d
Will annual inflation be 3.5% in May? BUY No 100¢ $93 22d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $345 22d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $233 22d
Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (HIGH) $6.00 in May? BUY No 100¢ $101 30d
Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (HIGH) $6.00 in May? BUY No 100¢ $100 30d
Will NVIDIA be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on BUY No 100¢ $284 30d
Will BNB dip to $500 in May? BUY No 100¢ $186 30d
Knicks vs. Cavaliers BUY Knicks 99¢ $666 32d
Thunder vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 100¢ $661 33d
Will Figure's F.03 robots run for at least 200 hours without failure? SELL No 83¢ $60 39d
Will Figure's F.03 robots run for at least 200 hours without failure? SELL No 83¢ $42 39d
Will Figure's F.03 robots run for at least 200 hours without failure? SELL No 83¢ $40 39d
Will Figure's F.03 robots run for at least 200 hours without failure? BUY No 83¢ $141 43d
Will "Michael" score at least 25 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer? BUY Yes 100¢ $306 60d
Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" 4th Weekend Box Office be between BUY No 100¢ $356 60d
Will Microsoft (MSFT) finish week of April 13 above $320? BUY Yes 100¢ $661 71d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $678.81 · official $678.81 (match) · 50 history records