Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T09:59:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4D 0x4df8…723c crypto 155 markets active 2h ago coverage 85d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$70 (-10%) realized −$70 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate42%64W / 90L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days−$10
14 days−$10
30 days−$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 77% −$61
other 14% −$24
sports 8% $0
world 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-20.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -25.0% -32.2% 25% 25% -35.1%
≤30d 8 -25.0% -32.2% 25% 25% -35.1%
≤90d 154 -12.0% -20.3% 42% 39% -20.6%
all 154 -12.0% -20.3% 42% 39% -20.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.3% 39% -20.6%
10% -28.0% 36% -28.2%
15% -34.9% 34% -35.2%
20% -41.3% 31% -41.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$4 · ×1.06 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

85d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized−$70
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses64 / 90
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)154 / 155
History coverage85d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 154 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $7 $6 −$0 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 38 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 $0 -1%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $7 +$5 +82%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 +$4 +173%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $6 −$3 -58%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $7 −$7 -95%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Apr 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Apr 26 $3 +$1 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Apr 26 $5 −$2 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Apr 24 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Apr 24 $3 −$2 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Apr 24 $4 −$1 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Apr 24 $2 −$1 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Apr 24 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Apr 24 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Apr 24 $2 +$1 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Apr 23 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Apr 23 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Apr 23 $4 −$2 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Apr 23 $2 +$1 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Apr 22 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Apr 22 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Apr 22 $2 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Apr 22 $4 +$3 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Apr 22 $14 −$7 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Apr 22 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Apr 22 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Apr 22 $3 +$2 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Apr 22 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Apr 22 $2 −$1 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Apr 22 $3 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Apr 22 $2 +$2 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Apr 22 $4 +$5 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Apr 22 $2 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Apr 22 $2 +$2 +89%
Will Real Madrid CF vs. Deportivo Alavés end in a draw? Apr 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Girona FC vs. Real Betis Balompié end in a draw? Apr 21 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Apr 21 $11 −$5 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Apr 21 $5 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Apr 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Apr 20 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Apr 20 $3 −$2 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Apr 20 $3 +$2 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Apr 20 $8 +$12 +149%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Apr 20 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Apr 20 $2 +$4 +197%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Apr 20 $9 −$9 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Apr 20 $10 −$10 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 7¢ $7 1h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 16¢ $3 7h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 49¢ $5 7h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 48¢ $5 7h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 25¢ $2 10h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 67¢ $12 10h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 36¢ $7 10h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 40¢ $7 10h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 11h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 7¢ $2 13h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 16¢ $6 20h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 36h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 38¢ $5 46h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $7 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $4 51d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $3 51d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $3 51d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET SELL Down 5¢ $0 51d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 51d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $1 53d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET SELL Down 18¢ $1 53d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $3 53d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET SELL Down 31¢ $1 53d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET SELL Up 48¢ $2 53d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $2 53d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $2 53d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET SELL Down 21¢ $1 53d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $2 53d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $2 53d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET SELL Down 73¢ $2 53d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.18 · official $6.18 (match) · 303 history records