Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T13:06:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4D 0x4df8…8579 crypto 643 markets active 1h ago coverage 20d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 20d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (149 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$2,965 (+26%) realized +$2,965 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate34%218W / 425L
Drawdown76%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day148.8pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 20d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 89% +$516
sports 10% +$65
other 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (149 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-8.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 247 +21.6% +10.0% 22% 20% +20.1%
≤30d 643 +1.7% -8.0% 34% 30% -5.8%
≤90d 643 +1.7% -8.0% 34% 30% -5.8%
all 643 +1.7% -8.0% 34% 30% -5.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover148.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.0% 30% -5.8%
10% ← realistic here -16.8% 23% -14.8%
15% -24.8% 19% -23.1%
20% -32.2% 14% -30.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late +13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$10 · ×2.21 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.13 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$2,965
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses218 / 425
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions0
Markets (closed)643 / 643
History coverage20d ⚠
Avg bet$18
Trades / day148.8
Drawdown76%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 643 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 19 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 19 $6 +$94 +1567%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 19 $9 −$9 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 19 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 19 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 19 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 19 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 19 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 19 $18 −$18 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 19 $100 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 19 $6 +$6 +102%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 19 $6 +$21 +343%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 19 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 18 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 18 $35 −$35 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 18 $9 −$7 -79%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 18 $19 −$4 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 18 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 18 $6 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 18 $41 +$28 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 18 $13 +$7 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 18 $50 +$30 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 18 $9 −$9 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 18 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 18 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 18 $13 +$137 +1054%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 18 $2 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $3 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $6 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $0 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $0 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $3 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $1 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $0 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $0 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $0 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $0 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $0 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $0 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records