Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T10:19:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4D 0x4df5…c097 world 570 markets active 1h ago coverage 114d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$678 (-8%) realized −$684 · open +$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate44%237W / 307L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day24.3pace
Fees−$17est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$79now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7
7 days+$14
14 days+$14
30 days+$77
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 55% −$634
sports 14% −$184
crypto 13% −$124
other 9% −$20
politics 7% +$237
finance 1% −$11
weather 1% +$3
tech 0% +$6
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-16.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +43.4% +29.7% 70% 60% +35.9%
≤30d 94 +4.3% -5.6% 50% 45% -1.8%
≤90d 523 -8.2% -17.0% 44% 32% -17.5%
all 544 -8.1% -16.9% 44% 32% -17.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.9% 32% -17.1%
10% ← realistic here -24.8% 25% -25.0%
15% -32.1% 20% -32.3%
20% -38.8% 16% -38.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$8 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

114d coverage
Net worth$79
Realized−$684
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses237 / 307
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions25
Markets (closed)544 / 570
History coverage114d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day24.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 25 History 544 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 47¢ 81¢ $10 $17 +$7 (+73%)
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? Yes 75¢ 90¢ $9 $11 +$2 (+19%)
Will Russia capture Sloviansk by June 30? No 96¢ 99¢ $6 $7 +$0 (+3%)
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? No 30¢ 22¢ $7 $5 −$2 (-25%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026? No 78¢ 78¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? No 38¢ 96¢ $1 $4 +$2 (+151%)
Will Russia enter Dopropillia by December 31, 2026? Yes 58¢ 36¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-37%)
Will Shehbaz Sharif sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? No 46¢ 56¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+23%)
Will Russia enter Sumy by December 31, 2026? No 77¢ 94¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+21%)
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? No 35¢ 22¢ $4 $2 −$1 (-36%)
Will Russia enter Novyi Donbas by June 30? Yes 28¢ 24¢ $3 $2 −$0 (-12%)
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-5%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-5%)
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June? No 65¢ 63¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? No 61¢ 98¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+60%)
Will Ukraine re-enter Maliivka by December 31? No 50¢ 35¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-30%)
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? Yes 36¢ 42¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+15%)
Will Russia capture Sofiivka by June 30? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-7%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? No 91¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+8%)
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? No 36¢ 80¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+121%)
Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by June 30? No 61¢ 88¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+44%)
US x Cuba economic deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 28¢ 10¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-63%)
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? Yes 28¢ 9¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-68%)
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Yes 30¢ 66¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+120%)
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 54 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 16 $7 +$7 +98%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $2 $0 -0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 13 $2 −$1 -58%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $2 +$2 +100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 12 $4 $0 +4%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 12 $2 +$3 +122%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 12 $2 +$2 +73%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $2 +$1 +60%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $2 −$1 -44%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $2 +$2 +79%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 08 $20 $0 -2%
Iran closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 07 $2 −$1 -72%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30? Jun 07 $6 +$1 +15%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $21 +$2 +11%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 02 $4 −$2 -47%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 02 $6 +$2 +28%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31? Jun 01 $33 +$15 +44%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 01 $5 +$2 +44%
Andy Burnham out as Mayor of Greater Manchester by May 31? Jun 01 $4 +$6 +150%
Will Russia enter Krasnopillya by May 31? Jun 01 $4 +$1 +15%
Will Russia enter Kindrashivka by May 31? Jun 01 $2 $0 +12%
Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31? Jun 01 $9 +$3 +34%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31? Jun 01 $12 −$5 -44%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31? May 31 $23 −$12 -51%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 31 $54 +$4 +7%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 31 $32 +$3 +10%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $7 −$6 -98%
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31? May 30 $4 +$2 +58%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May? May 29 $2 +$10 +469%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29? May 29 $6 −$1 -14%
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027? May 29 $4 −$1 -20%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? May 29 $8 −$8 -100%
Israeli forces cross the Litani River again by May 31? May 29 $12 +$3 +25%
Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026? May 28 $75 +$22 +29%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? May 28 $19 −$1 -3%
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31? May 28 $16 +$2 +10%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27? May 27 $6 −$4 -67%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 27 $9 −$3 -32%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 27 $24 +$123 +509%
Will Rue Bennett die in Euphoria: Season 3? May 26 $2 −$2 -97%
US x Iran permanent peace deal before ceasefire ends? May 25 $2 $0 -16%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 26? May 25 $2 $0 -13%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 26? May 25 $3 −$1 -26%
Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by December 31, 2026? May 25 $5 −$1 -26%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24? May 24 $20 −$20 -100%
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Trump meet with Lai Ching-te in 2026? May 24 $2 −$2 -71%
Will Russia enter Huliaipilske by May 31? May 24 $32 +$4 +13%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 24 $20 +$25 +124%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju BUY Yes 16¢ $2 1h
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 45¢ $1 1h
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL Yes 66¢ $0 18h
Will Shehbaz Sharif sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY No 46¢ $2 18h
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL Yes 63¢ $1 19h
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL Yes 64¢ $0 25h
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL Yes 67¢ $0 27h
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL Yes 63¢ $0 36h
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL Yes 50¢ $0 37h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? SELL No 86¢ $1 44h
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June? BUY No 65¢ $2 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 51¢ $2 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 51¢ $2 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL Yes 8¢ $1 2d
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL G2 77¢ $0 3d
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 48¢ $2 4d
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by July 31, 2026? BUY No 47¢ $2 4d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 28¢ $4 4d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 29¢ $0 4d
Will Ukraine re-enter Maliivka by December 31? BUY No 50¢ $2 4d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? SELL No 95¢ $1 4d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 4d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY No 27¢ $2 4d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY No 27¢ $2 4d
Will Russia enter Sumy by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $4 4d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL Yes 51¢ $0 4d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL Yes 60¢ $0 4d
Will Russia enter Novyi Donbas by June 30? SELL Yes 18¢ $1 4d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL Yes 38¢ $0 4d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Team Falcons 62¢ $2 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $78.58 · official $77.77 (match) · 3173 history records