Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T09:15:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4D
0x4df3…788f
sports · 329 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$187,364 -32%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$188,857 · open −$1,288
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Chart Positions 40 History 641 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$260,963
7 days−$247,865
14 days−$188,857
30 days−$188,857
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? No 82¢ 80¢ $49,543 $48,925 −$618 (-1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 82¢ 84¢ $24,035 $24,465 +$429 (+2%)
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? No 47¢ 44¢ $3,250 $3,093 −$158 (-5%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 89¢ 89¢ $2,579 $2,580 +$0 (+0%)
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? No 90¢ 90¢ $1,156 $1,149 −$6 (-1%)
Knicks vs. Spurs Spurs 65¢ 64¢ $1,087 $1,078 −$8 (-1%)
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 63¢ 62¢ $1,077 $1,045 −$33 (-3%)
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 33¢ 34¢ $847 $869 +$22 (+3%)
Will Robert Kenyon finish second in the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Yes 80¢ 79¢ $799 $789 −$10 (-1%)
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 79¢ 66¢ $939 $778 −$161 (-17%)
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 53¢ 62¢ $654 $764 +$111 (+17%)
Spread: Spurs (-1.5) Knicks 37¢ 38¢ $639 $647 +$9 (+1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $549 $548 −$2 (-0%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $517 $482 −$35 (-7%)
Will Lando Norris win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? No 93¢ 92¢ $459 $457 −$2 (-1%)
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 34¢ 38¢ $373 $411 +$38 (+10%)
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 33¢ 30¢ $438 $409 −$28 (-6%)
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Yes 79¢ 78¢ $375 $372 −$3 (-1%)
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 21¢ 34¢ $209 $343 +$134 (+64%)
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 54¢ 54¢ $316 $314 −$3 (-1%)
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Marin Cilic Nuno Borges 50¢ 81¢ $185 $301 +$116 (+63%)
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? No 84¢ 100¢ $241 $286 +$45 (+19%)
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 33¢ 34¢ $229 $236 +$7 (+3%)
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? No 22¢ 22¢ $209 $200 −$9 (-4%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 80¢ 88¢ $173 $189 +$16 (+9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Thunder vs. 76ers: O/U 225.5 Jun 12 $338 −$627 -186%
Warriors vs. Mavericks: O/U 233.5 Jun 12 $477 −$954 -200%
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) Jun 12 $3,545 −$3,545 -100%
Pistons vs. Thunder: O/U 217.5 Jun 12 $362 −$727 -201%
Spread: Bucks (-5.5) Jun 12 $5,475 −$10,983 -201%
Spread: Grizzlies (-1.5) Jun 12 $639 −$639 -100%
Celtics vs. Suns: O/U 204.5 Jun 12 $255 −$255 -100%
Clippers vs. Lakers: O/U 226.5 Jun 12 $46 +$2 +5%
Seahawks vs. 49ers Jun 12 $449 −$369 -82%
Spread: Chargers (-2.5) Jun 12 $61 −$61 -100%
Spread: Thunder (-18.5) Jun 12 $446 −$446 -100%
Magic vs. Clippers: O/U 215.5 Jun 12 $948 −$943 -100%
Barcelona Open: Alex de Minaur vs Sebastian Ofner Jun 12 $494 −$494 -100%
Bulls vs. Lakers: O/U 238.5 Jun 12 $323 −$323 -100%
Australian Open Men's: Carlos Alcaraz vs Alexander Zverev Jun 12 $21 −$157 -734%
Kings vs. Thunder: O/U 227.5 Jun 12 $34 −$32 -94%
76ers vs. Celtics Jun 12 $1,645 −$1,645 -100%
Spread: 76ers (-2.5) Jun 12 $46 −$46 -100%
Celtics vs. Heat: O/U 230.5 Jun 12 $392 −$392 -100%
Mubadala Abu Dhabi Open: Liudmila Samsonova vs Janice Tjen Jun 12 $77 −$77 -100%
Suns vs. Kings: O/U 234.5 Jun 12 $196 −$196 -100%
Vikings vs. Cowboys Jun 12 $185 −$185 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 12 $280 −$280 -100%
Spread: Celtics (-2.5) Jun 12 $124 −$124 -100%
Pistons vs. Bucks: O/U 229.5 Jun 12 $236 −$236 -100%
Spread: Bills (-6.5) Jun 12 $1,236 −$1,157 -94%
76ers vs. Warriors: O/U 218.5 Jun 12 $104 −$104 -100%
Spread: Heat (-6.5) Jun 12 $153 −$153 -100%
Spread: Nuggets (-6.5) Jun 12 $2,288 −$2,274 -99%
Spread: Jazz (-4.5) Jun 12 $695 −$695 -100%
Will Collin Morikawa win the 2026 Arnold Palmer Invitational presented Jun 12 $87 −$87 -100%
Magic vs. Heat: O/U 235.5 Jun 12 $8 +$14 +192%
Mavericks vs. Raptors: O/U 227.5 Jun 12 $2,233 −$2,233 -100%
Spread: 76ers (-1.5) Jun 12 $552 −$552 -100%
Nuggets vs. Spurs Jun 12 $561 −$583 -104%
Hawks vs. Knicks: O/U 242.5 Jun 12 $311 −$311 -100%
Celtics vs. Bucks: O/U 227.5 Jun 12 $70 −$68 -96%
Suns vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 222.5 Jun 12 $14 −$14 -100%
Cowboys vs. Raiders Jun 12 $46 −$46 -100%
Barcelona Open: Mariano Navone vs Andrey Rublev Jun 12 $955 −$955 -100%
Pistons vs. Wizards: O/U 235.5 Jun 12 $247 −$247 -100%
Spread: Thunder (-17.5) Jun 12 $18 −$27 -152%
Cavaliers vs. Thunder: O/U 225.5 Jun 12 $637 −$611 -96%
Will Villarreal win on 2025-10-25? Jun 12 $83 −$83 -100%
Nuggets vs. Pacers Jun 12 $119 −$119 -100%
Will Cameroon win on 2025-10-08? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Inter win on 2025-09-21? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Raptors vs. Bucks Jun 12 $64 −$1 -2%
Spread: Raptors (-2.5) Jun 12 $81 −$81 -100%
Spread: Raptors (-12.5) Jun 12 $963 −$973 -101%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 72% +$120,206
politics 16% −$989
other 11% −$16,998
crypto 0% −$3
world 0% +$54
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Lehecka vs. Tiafoe: Match O/U 22.5 BUY Under 27¢ $0 48m
Zhang vs. Mannarino: Match O/U 21.5 BUY Under 32¢ $46 1h
Bosnia-Herzegovina leading at halftime? BUY Yes 16¢ $0 1h
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 219.5 BUY Under 56¢ $6 1h
Zhang vs. Mannarino: Match O/U 21.5 BUY Under 32¢ $2 1h
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY No 80¢ $748 1h
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY No 80¢ $682 1h
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY No 80¢ $757 1h
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY No 80¢ $716 1h
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY No 80¢ $721 1h
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY No 80¢ $739 1h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 79¢ $358 2h
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 4.5 BUY Over $25 2h
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 20¢ $348 3h
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 219.5 BUY Under 56¢ $6 3h
Will Czechia win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $15 3h
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) BUY Knicks 54¢ $27 3h
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 219.5 BUY Under 56¢ $6 3h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY No 22¢ $99 3h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY No 22¢ $1 3h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY No 22¢ $1 3h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY No 22¢ $1 3h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY No 23¢ $106 3h
Lehecka vs. Tiafoe: Match O/U 23.5 BUY Under 39¢ $6 4h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 89¢ $1,110 4h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 89¢ $1,478 4h
Bonzi vs. Minaur: Match O/U 21.5 BUY Over 49¢ $13 4h
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka BUY West Indies 86¢ $100 6h
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka BUY West Indies 86¢ $112 6h
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka BUY Sri Lanka 19¢ $1 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-39.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 566 -47.5% -52.5% 19% 17% -47.8%
≤30d 641 -33.0% -39.4% 26% 23% -32.5%
≤90d 641 -33.0% -39.4% 26% 23% -32.5%
all 641 -33.0% -39.4% 26% 23% -32.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover221.1 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -39.4% 23% -32.5%
10% -45.2% 21% -38.9%
15% ← realistic here -50.5% 19% -44.8%
20% -55.3% 15% -50.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $92,113.39 · official $92,113.64 (match) · 3500 history records