Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T08:57:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4D 0x4df2…21d9 crypto 550 markets active 0h ago coverage 87d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$36 (-5%) realized −$35 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate68%372W / 176L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day9.8pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days+$0
14 days+$1
30 days−$25
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 73% −$14
sports 17% −$18
other 5% −$6
weather 4% −$14
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-14.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 140 +0.3% -9.3% 64% 61% -9.5%
≤30d 399 -3.4% -12.6% 73% 34% -14.1%
≤90d 548 -5.9% -14.8% 68% 31% -16.2%
all 548 -5.9% -14.8% 68% 31% -16.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.8% 31% -16.2%
10% -23.0% 24% -24.2%
15% -30.4% 16% -31.5%
20% -37.2% 8% -38.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
53% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.3 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

87d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$35
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses372 / 176
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)548 / 550
History coverage87d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day9.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 548 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Manuel Mazza vs. Marcello Serafini: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Over 2.5 51¢ 28¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-45%)
ITF Milano: Manuel Mazza vs Marcello Serafini Marcello Serafini 21¢ 20¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 34 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -50%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -81%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -67%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +35%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Up 25¢ $0 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET SELL Up 65¢ $1 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET SELL Up 8¢ $0 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET SELL Up 79¢ $2 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET SELL Down 28¢ $1 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 32m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET SELL Up 11¢ $0 36m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 37m
Manuel Mazza vs. Marcello Serafini: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Over 2.5 51¢ $2 46m
ITF Milano: Manuel Mazza vs Marcello Serafini BUY Marcello Serafini 21¢ $1 47m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET SELL Down 19¢ $0 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET SELL Down 72¢ $2 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET SELL Down 22¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET SELL Down 50¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET SELL Up 34¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET SELL Down 38¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET SELL Up 72¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.27 · official $2.27 (match) · 1208 history records