Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:44:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4D 0x4def…f8e8 world 16 markets active 1h ago coverage 21d
RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$14,843 (+65%) realized +$16,219 · open −$1,376
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate20%2W / 8L
Drawdown20%max
Avg bet$1,432per market
Trades / day14.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$2,809now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$370
7 days+$17,199
14 days+$15,598
30 days+$14,469
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 92% +$14,775
politics 7% −$1,600
finance 1% −$81
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-19.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +81.4% +64.1% 50% 50% +124.2%
≤30d 10 -10.5% -19.1% 20% 20% +80.6%
≤90d 10 -10.5% -19.1% 20% 20% +80.6%
all 10 -10.5% -19.1% 20% 20% +80.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.1 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.1% 20% +80.6%
10% ← realistic here -26.8% 20% +63.3%
15% -33.9% 20% +47.5%
20% -40.4% 20% +33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 63% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +99% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt +99% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
14.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$8,938 vs −$426 · ×20.99 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.25 per $1 lost it wins $5.25
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

21d coverage
Net worth$2,809
Realized+$16,219
Unrealized−$1,376
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses2 / 8
Open positions6
Markets (closed)10 / 16
History coverage21d
Avg bet$1,432
Trades / day14.1
Drawdown20%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027? Yes 28¢ 24¢ $1,227 $1,011 −$215 (-18%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 19¢ 14¢ $932 $723 −$209 (-22%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 16¢ 8¢ $1,348 $719 −$629 (-47%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Yes 15¢ 12¢ $383 $319 −$64 (-17%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $226 $22 −$204 (-90%)
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? No 1¢ 0¢ $70 $15 −$55 (-79%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $2,252 −$370 -16%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 14 $2,450 +$6,693 +273%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $6,626 +$11,184 +169%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 11 $308 −$308 -100%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 10 $1,601 −$1,600 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? Jun 02 $359 −$359 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29? May 30 $1,143 −$557 -49%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May? May 30 $226 −$51 -23%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May? May 30 $41 −$30 -73%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 29 $1,302 −$132 -10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $226 1h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $286 1h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 9¢ $126 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $23 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $248 1h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $197 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $209 22h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $290 22h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $433 23h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $700 25h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $779 26h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $600 28h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $290 29h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $2 29h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $20 30h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $4 31h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $9 32h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $46 32h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $34 32h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 32h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $4 32h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 32h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 33h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 33h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 33h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 33h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 33h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 34h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 34h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $160 34h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,809.21 · official $2,809.21 (match) · 291 history records