Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:28:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
4D 0x4ded…68a3 sports 1059 markets active 1h ago coverage 105d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$505 (-1%) realized −$504 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate60%625W / 425L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day11.8pace
Fees−$353est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$459now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$66
7 days−$560
14 days−$535
30 days−$842
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% −$679
other 2% −$85
weather 0% −$40
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-14.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 55 -45.0% -50.3% 27% 25% -33.2%
≤30d 261 -12.8% -21.1% 58% 54% -17.8%
≤90d 1031 -4.8% -13.9% 60% 57% -11.7%
all 1050 -5.0% -14.0% 60% 57% -11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.0% 57% -11.5%
10% -22.2% 54% -19.9%
15% -29.7% 45% -27.7%
20% -36.6% 27% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$28 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

105d coverage
Net worth$459
Realized−$504
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses625 / 425
Est. fees paid−$353
Open positions9
Markets (closed)1050 / 1059
History coverage105d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day11.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 1050 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Under 58¢ 58¢ $60 $61 +$1 (+1%)
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Bosnia and Herzegovina 65¢ 64¢ $60 $59 −$1 (-2%)
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Under 65¢ 75¢ $50 $58 +$8 (+15%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+1%)
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Brazil 73¢ 72¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Under 52¢ 50¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-3%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Yes 55¢ 52¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-5%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Yes 50¢ 48¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-5%)
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Under 46¢ 44¢ $40 $38 −$2 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $51 +$34 +67%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $51 −$1 -3%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $102 −$50 -49%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $51 +$31 +62%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $56 +$52 +93%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $71 +$56 +79%
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) Jun 16 $50 −$4 -8%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $101 +$52 +51%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $51 −$51 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $61 +$55 +90%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $50 +$22 +44%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $61 −$60 -99%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $51 −$50 -99%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 14 $50 −$50 -99%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $41 −$1 -4%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $51 −$2 -4%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 14 $30 −$30 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $51 −$51 -100%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $41 +$43 +105%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $51 +$68 +134%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $20 +$30 +146%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $61 +$64 +105%
Centurion 2: Tuncay Duran vs Stefano Napolitano Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Tyler: Yuta Shimizu vs Dane Sweeny Jun 13 $15 −$15 -100%
Centurion 2: Arda Azkara vs Guillaume Dalmasso Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Birmingham: Elias Ymer vs Christopher O'Connell Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Birmingham: Jack Pinnington Jones vs Aleksandar Vukic Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Birmingham: Yunchaokete Bu vs Lloyd Harris Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Centurion 2: Harold Mayot vs Semen Pankin Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Tyler: Timo Legout vs Andres Andrade Jun 13 $30 −$30 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Libema Open: James McCabe vs Zizou Bergs Jun 13 $30 −$30 -100%
Birmingham: Mark Lajal vs Leandro Riedi Jun 13 $30 −$30 -100%
Tyler: Blaise Bicknell vs Johannus Monday Jun 13 $30 −$30 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca Jun 13 $30 −$30 -100%
Centurion 2: Akira Santillan vs Alexander Donski Jun 13 $30 −$30 -100%
Birmingham: Clement Chidekh vs Filippo Romano Jun 13 $30 −$30 -100%
Birmingham: Mika Stojsavljevic vs Emerson Jones Jun 13 $30 −$30 -100%
Birmingham: Mary Stoiana vs Lulu Sun Jun 13 $30 −$30 -100%
Birmingham: Mackenzie McDonald vs Nicolai Budkov Kjaer Jun 13 $30 −$30 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Berrettini vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 13 $30 −$30 -100%
Birmingham: Mattia Bellucci vs Alex Bolt Jun 13 $30 −$30 -100%
Centurion 2: Khololwam Montsi vs Calvin Hemery Jun 13 $40 −$40 -100%
Centurion 2: Alec Beckley vs Tuncay Duran Jun 13 $30 −$30 -100%
Birmingham: Billy Harris vs Yunchaokete Bu Jun 13 $30 −$30 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 65¢ $51 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 51¢ $49 17h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $51 17h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 46¢ $50 17h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 48¢ $51 2d
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) SELL New Zealand 72¢ $46 2d
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 73¢ $50 2d
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 58¢ $61 2d
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 52¢ $51 2d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $20 2d
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Egypt 64¢ $51 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 50¢ $51 2d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $41 2d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Bosnia and Herzegovina 65¢ $61 3d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 55¢ $51 3d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 51¢ $51 3d
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $51 3d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $61 3d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 45¢ $51 3d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 44¢ $51 3d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 52¢ $51 3d
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 61¢ $51 3d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $56 3d
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) BUY New Zealand 77¢ $50 3d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $51 3d
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Egypt 67¢ $50 3d
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 74¢ $50 3d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 38¢ $39 3d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $61 3d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 56¢ $48 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $458.61 · official $458.61 (match) · 2247 history records