Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T01:11:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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4D 0x4de8…76ba crypto 499 markets active 0h ago coverage 408d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$4,788 (-7%) realized −$4,367 · open −$421
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate20%98W / 400L
Whale WR36%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$143per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$179now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 408d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$15,041
other 2% +$4,730
sports 0% −$100
world 0% −$57
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-28.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 57 -12.8% -21.1% 28% 28% -14.6%
≤30d 238 -33.2% -39.6% 15% 15% -33.7%
≤90d 396 -20.6% -28.1% 20% 19% -29.0%
all 498 -21.4% -28.9% 20% 19% -28.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.9% 19% -28.4%
10% -35.7% 19% -35.3%
15% -41.9% 18% -41.5%
20% -47.6% 18% -47.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 36% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -7% → late -36% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$387 vs −$120 · ×3.23 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

408d coverage
Net worth$179
Realized−$4,367
Unrealized−$421
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses98 / 400
Whale WR (big bets)36%
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)498 / 499
History coverage408d
Avg bet$143
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 498 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Up 35¢ 10¢ $600 $179 −$421 (-70%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 381 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 20 $523 −$300 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 20 $738 −$700 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 20 $317 +$1,296 +409%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 20 $421 −$400 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 20 $1,255 −$600 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 20 $756 −$716 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 20 $1,049 +$472 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 20 $940 −$833 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 20 $418 +$679 +163%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 20 $847 +$405 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 20 $735 −$300 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 20 $328 +$1,705 +519%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 20 $439 +$772 +176%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 19 $360 −$341 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 19 $252 +$544 +216%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 19 $651 −$620 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 19 $874 −$213 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 19 $1,005 −$544 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 19 $420 −$400 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 19 $858 +$252 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 19 $518 +$695 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 19 $491 −$140 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 19 $163 +$179 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 19 $126 +$314 +250%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 19 $103 +$88 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 19 $105 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 19 $106 −$100 -95%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Draw at halftime? Jun 19 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 13 $102 −$98 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 13 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 13 $108 −$103 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 13 $107 −$100 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 13 $130 −$124 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 13 $123 −$116 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 13 $113 −$8 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 13 $116 −$110 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 13 $105 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 13 $147 −$140 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 13 $157 −$10 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 13 $139 −$132 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 13 $355 −$230 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 13 $104 +$173 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 13 $105 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 13 $105 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 13 $154 −$145 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 13 $142 −$135 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 13 $211 −$200 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 13 $314 −$300 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 13 $283 +$522 +185%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 13 $137 −$130 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $105 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $105 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $105 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $105 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $104 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $105 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $560 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $105 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $105 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $104 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $104 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $105 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $106 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $106 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $105 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $105 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $105 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $105 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $105 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1,613 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $106 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $106 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $106 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $106 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $105 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $105 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $105 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1,745 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $105 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $105 26m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $179.48 · official $299.13 · 1195 history records