Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T00:12:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4D
0x4de7…5c32
sports · 370 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$95 -5%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$93 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$451
Realized−$93
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses242 / 118
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions10
Markets (closed)360 / 370
History coverage98d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day4.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%
Chart Positions 10 History 360 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$7
14 days+$10
30 days+$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $200 $216 +$16 (+8%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $200 $190 −$10 (-5%)
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $18 $18 −$0 (-1%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Athletics 58¢ 57¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 45¢ 14¢ $9 $3 −$6 (-68%)
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 69¢ 66¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-5%)
Will Lionel Messi play in the World Cup? Yes 95¢ 99¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+5%)
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Yes 61¢ 47¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-22%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $15 +$1 +9%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 13 $5 +$1 +11%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $15 $0 +2%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 13 $2 +$2 +86%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-2.5) Jun 13 $2 $0 -0%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 13 $6 $0 +0%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 13 $2 $0 +1%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $3 +$5 +158%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 12 $1 $0 +5%
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs CTBC Flying Oyster Academy (BO3) - Asia Jun 11 $3 +$1 +29%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $5 +$2 +44%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 11 $1 +$1 +146%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $2 +$2 +79%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-08? Jun 09 $2 $0 +17%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 09 $3 +$2 +70%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 09 $3 +$3 +83%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-08? Jun 09 $1 $0 +24%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 09 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: Team Secret Whales vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO5) - LCP Playoffs Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 09 $10 $0 +4%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $1 $0 +5%
New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres Jun 07 $1 +$1 +109%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 07 $2 +$1 +31%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 07 $2 +$1 +34%
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs GAM Esports (BO5) - LCP Playoffs Jun 07 $1 +$1 +114%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 07 $3 +$1 +24%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 07 $3 +$1 +29%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 2.5 Jun 06 $2 +$1 +40%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 06 $4 +$2 +60%
Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees Jun 06 $2 +$1 +65%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Kansas City Royals vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 04 $2 +$2 +76%
Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees Jun 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Zhejiang Lions vs. Shanghai Sharks Jun 04 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: EDward Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 03 $2 $0 +2%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 03 $2 +$2 +86%
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 03 $3 $0 +11%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 03 $3 +$3 +83%
Zhejiang Lions vs. Shanghai Sharks Jun 01 $1 +$1 +101%
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Jun 01 $10 +$1 +8%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers May 31 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 60% −$9
other 27% −$100
crypto 12% +$15
tech 0% +$2
finance 0% −$4
world 0% +$2
weather 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 58¢ $3 3m
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 5m
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $15 5m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 39¢ $1 52m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 40¢ $2 53m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 40¢ $3 53m
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $3 11h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $3 11h
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 73¢ $2 12h
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 95¢ $13 14h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $3 14h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 98¢ $15 21h
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 63¢ $5 21h
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays SELL New York Yankees 0¢ $0 21h
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-2.5) SELL Milwaukee Brewers 99¢ $2 22h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 53¢ $2 22h
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 90¢ $5 22h
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers SELL Milwaukee Brewers 100¢ $6 22h
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees SELL New York Yankees 53¢ $2 22h
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-2.5) BUY Milwaukee Brewers 99¢ $2 22h
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Milwaukee Brewers 100¢ $6 22h
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY New York Yankees 18¢ $1 22h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 11¢ $1 22h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $206 39h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $205 39h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $3 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $3 2d
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Seattle Mariners 58¢ $1 2d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 95¢ $1 2d
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs CTBC Flying Oyster Academy (BO3) - Asia BUY Top Esports Challenger 77¢ $3 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 +3.3% -6.5% 69% 49% -4.2%
≤30d 77 +4.4% -5.5% 65% 51% -5.7%
≤90d 315 -2.7% -11.9% 66% 51% -18.5%
all 360 -1.9% -11.2% 67% 52% -15.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover4.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.2% 52% -15.9%
10% -19.7% 39% -23.9%
15% -27.5% 28% -31.3%
20% -34.6% 21% -38.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $450.72 · official $450.72 (match) · 818 history records