Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T18:33:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

4D 0x4de4…37d3 sports 3 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable

Total PnL +$15 (+14%) realized −$54 · open +$69

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +29% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +12% what you keep after slip

Net edge+12%after slip

Net WR100%break-even

Win rate100%1W / 0L

Drawdown0%max

Avg bet$37per market

Trades / day3.8pace

Fees−$1est.

Kalshi-fit67%portable

Net worth$69now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +100%

net ROI/market (all)+16.7%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	1	+29.0%	+16.7%	100%	100%	+16.7%
≤30d	1	+29.0%	+16.7%	100%	100%	+16.7%
≤90d	1	+29.0%	+16.7%	100%	100%	+16.7%
all	1	+29.0%	+16.7%	100%	100%	+16.7%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover3.8 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to10%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+16.7%	100%	+16.7%
10%	+5.5%	100%	+5.5%
15%	-4.7%	0%	-4.7%
20%	-14.0%	0%	-14.0%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +29% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +29% · $-wt +29% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$14 vs — no data

Profit factor

— no data

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$69

Realized−$54

Unrealized+$69

Win rate (resolved)100%

Wins / losses1 / 0

Est. fees paid−$1

Open positions2

Markets (closed)1 / 3

History coverage1d

Avg bet$37

Trades / day3.8

Drawdown0%

Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 1 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	Yes	0¢	81¢	$0	$61	+$61 (+0%)
Spread: Argentina (-1.5)	Argentina	0¢	32¢	$0	$8	+$8 (+0%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof	Jun 22	$49	+$14	+29%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	67¢	$50	1h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5)	BUY Argentina	39¢	$10	1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof	BUY Team Falcons	77¢	$9	26h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof	BUY Team Falcons	77¢	$40	26h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $69.15 · official $69.15 (match) · 5 history records