Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:33:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
4D 0x4de2…1d6f crypto 364 markets active 2h ago coverage 231d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$6,913 (-6%) realized −$6,845 · open −$68
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate39%140W / 218L
Whale WR63%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$327per market
Trades / day9.6pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$449now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$62
7 days−$210
14 days+$26
30 days+$207
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$7,297
sports 1% −$330
other 0% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-14.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -59.4% -63.3% 20% 10% -26.6%
≤30d 29 -2.9% -12.2% 41% 28% -4.6%
≤90d 122 -8.5% -17.2% 46% 32% -16.9%
all 358 -5.1% -14.1% 39% 29% -15.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.1% 29% -15.5%
10% -22.3% 22% -23.6%
15% -29.8% 19% -31.0%
20% -36.7% 16% -37.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 63% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$92 vs −$94 · ×0.98 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

231d coverage
Net worth$449
Realized−$6,845
Unrealized−$68
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses140 / 218
Whale WR (big bets)63%
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions6
Markets (closed)358 / 364
History coverage231d
Avg bet$327
Trades / day9.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 358 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Over 82¢ 70¢ $410 $352 −$58 (-14%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Over 62¢ 46¢ $62 $46 −$16 (-27%)
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? Yes 17¢ 21¢ $17 $21 +$4 (+24%)
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? Yes 10¢ 11¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+10%)
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? Yes 8¢ 10¢ $8 $10 +$2 (+31%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 13¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 149 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17? Jun 16 $1,547 −$46 -3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $450 +$48 +11%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $39 −$28 -72%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $19 −$19 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $21 −$21 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $48 +$4 +9%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 16? Jun 15 $195 −$20 -10%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $249 −$79 -32%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $41 −$40 -98%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $450 +$46 +10%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $651 +$48 +7%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $390 −$80 -21%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $75 +$211 +282%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 6? Jun 05 $44 −$42 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $58 −$58 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 6? Jun 04 $32 −$32 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $549 +$50 +9%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $74 +$94 +126%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 31? May 29 $21 −$21 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 28? May 28 $140 +$81 +58%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 27? May 26 $400 −$70 -18%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 26? May 25 $570 +$200 +35%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 25? May 25 $381 +$90 +24%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 25? May 25 $60 −$50 -83%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 24? May 24 $880 +$115 +13%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 24? May 23 $290 −$207 -71%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 23? May 22 $435 +$60 +14%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 21? May 20 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 18? May 18 $6 +$1 +16%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 17? May 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 16? May 16 $66 +$84 +126%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 16? May 15 $300 +$76 +25%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 15? May 15 $2,896 +$337 +12%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 15? May 14 $111 −$74 -66%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 14? May 14 $225 −$73 -32%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 13? May 13 $225 +$74 +33%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 13? May 13 $228 −$218 -96%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 11? May 11 $62 −$50 -80%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 11? May 11 $808 −$281 -35%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 12? May 10 $24 −$7 -29%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 11? May 10 $25 +$15 +60%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 10? May 09 $130 −$130 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 9? May 09 $576 −$576 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 9? May 09 $50 +$5 +9%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 8? May 08 $160 −$65 -41%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 8? May 08 $900 +$94 +10%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 7? May 07 $231 −$129 -56%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 5? May 05 $804 −$147 -18%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 4? May 04 $836 −$148 -18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 8¢ $8 1h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 17¢ $17 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 62¢ $63 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 82¢ $412 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 8¢ $17 27h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $498 27h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 15¢ $4 28h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 15¢ $24 28h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 28h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 28h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 6.5 Total Corners SELL Under 8¢ $8 45h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Under 35¢ $35 45h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 6.5 Total Corners SELL Over 65¢ $3 45h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17? SELL No 83¢ $810 46h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17? SELL No 83¢ $3 46h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17? SELL No 83¢ $6 46h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17? SELL No 83¢ $3 46h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17? SELL No 83¢ $8 46h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 84¢ $4 46h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 37¢ $19 47h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 42¢ $21 47h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Over 53¢ $52 47h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17? SELL No 75¢ $750 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 48¢ $21 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 48¢ $4 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 48¢ $23 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17? BUY No 75¢ $750 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17? BUY No 75¢ $627 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17? BUY No 75¢ $2 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $448.74 · official $448.74 (match) · 2295 history records