Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:00:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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4D 0x4de1…f822 crypto 771 markets active 1h ago coverage 39d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 39d only
✗ bot/MM pace (70 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$411 (-4%) realized −$409 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate45%345W / 422L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day70.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$25now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$134
7 days−$204
14 days−$177
30 days−$72
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 53% −$230
weather 45% −$157
politics 2% +$248
other 0% −$15
sports 0% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (70 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-12.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 112 -30.9% -37.5% 38% 35% -29.5%
≤30d 540 -5.2% -14.2% 44% 43% -11.3%
≤90d 767 -3.7% -12.9% 45% 42% -11.1%
all 767 -3.7% -12.9% 45% 42% -11.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover70.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.9% 42% -11.1%
10% ← realistic here -21.2% 42% -19.6%
15% -28.8% 41% -27.4%
20% -35.8% 40% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$10 · ×1.18 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

39d coverage
Net worth$25
Realized−$409
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses345 / 422
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)767 / 771
History coverage39d ⚠
Avg bet$13
Trades / day70.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 767 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 17? Yes 27¢ 43¢ $10 $16 +$6 (+62%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 17? Yes 10¢ 14¢ $6 $8 +$2 (+42%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 17? Yes 22¢ 13¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-41%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 17? Yes 59¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 17? Jun 17 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $10 +$20 +196%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on June 16? Jun 16 $6 −$5 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $7 +$3 +36%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $10 +$10 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -96%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$8 +84%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$9 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$9 -97%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $6 −$4 -62%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$8 +85%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$4 +83%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$9 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 15 $9 +$9 +90%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 78-79°F on June 15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 19°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -96%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$4 -79%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 $0 +37%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 12? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 15 $11 +$3 +29%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 13? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -87%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on June 14? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 12? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 14? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C or below on June 14? Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C or below on June 15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 12? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 12? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$8 +86%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 38m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 38m
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 17? BUY Yes 31¢ $5 42m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 47m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 47m
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 17? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 48m
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 17? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 49m
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 17? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 50m
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 17? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 51m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 52m
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 17? BUY Yes 59¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 17? BUY Yes 59¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $10 3h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $10 4h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 17? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 4h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on June 16? BUY Yes 32¢ $2 12h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on June 16? BUY Yes 39¢ $4 13h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 16? SELL Yes 100¢ $2 16h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 16? SELL Yes 100¢ $20 16h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 16? BUY Yes 20¢ $4 18h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 16? BUY Yes 60¢ $6 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 20h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 16? SELL Yes 95¢ $7 23h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 16? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 23h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 16? BUY Yes 70¢ $4 24h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 16? BUY Yes 70¢ $4 24h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 16? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 24h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on June 16? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 24h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on June 16? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $24.85 · official $21.11 · 3500 history records