Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T06:07:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4D 0x4ddf…7a97 other 251 markets active 1h ago coverage 138d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$77 (-0%) realized −$77 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate7%17W / 234L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$229per market
Trades / day9.6pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$16
14 days−$29
30 days−$40
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% −$39
sports 25% −$21
politics 9% −$7
culture 8% −$7
crypto 6% −$7
economics 5% −$5
world 4% −$2
finance 1% $0
tech 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 66 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 171 -0.2% -9.7% 5% 0% -9.7%
all 251 -0.2% -9.7% 7% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.04 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

138d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$77
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses17 / 234
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions0
Markets (closed)251 / 251
History coverage138d
Avg bet$229
Trades / day9.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 251 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 19 $467 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 19 $469 −$1 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 18 $434 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 18 $254 −$1 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 18 $138 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $423 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $424 −$1 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $63 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $310 −$1 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 17 $800 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $836 −$1 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $537 −$1 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 16 $808 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $292 −$1 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $286 $0 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $537 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 15 $795 −$1 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 14 $500 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $65 $0 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 14 $132 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $302 −$1 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $65 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $66 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $168 $0 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $236 −$1 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $217 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 10 $628 −$1 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 09 $242 −$1 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 09 $533 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $338 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $579 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $232 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $498 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 08 $591 −$1 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 08 $837 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $512 −$1 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 06 $431 −$1 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $253 $0 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 06 $743 −$1 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 06 $344 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 05 $369 $0 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 05 $387 −$1 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $501 −$1 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 04 $241 −$1 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $738 −$1 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 03 $251 $0 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 01 $82 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $435 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 01 $388 −$1 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 01 $245 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? SELL No 100¢ $62 45m
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? BUY No 100¢ $62 2h
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $62 4h
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $62 6h
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $62 6h
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $62 8h
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $62 10h
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $62 12h
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? SELL No 100¢ $62 16h
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? BUY No 100¢ $63 18h
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $63 19h
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $63 21h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $63 34h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $63 35h
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $63 38h
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $63 39h
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $63 41h
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $63 43h
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $63 44h
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $63 45h
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $63 47h
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $63 2d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $63 2d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $63 2d
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $63 2d
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $64 2d
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $64 2d
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $64 2d
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $64 2d
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $64 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1384 history records