Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T03:24:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
4D 0x4ddf…e3df other 45 markets active 2h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$20 (+3%) realized +$10 · open +$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate50%21W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day7.3pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit38%portable
Net worth$110now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$83
7 days+$75
14 days+$26
30 days+$26
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 71% +$100
sports 26% −$77
crypto 3% +$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-8.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 +4.4% -5.5% 51% 37% +5.3%
≤30d 42 +1.7% -8.0% 50% 38% -6.0%
≤90d 42 +1.7% -8.0% 50% 38% -6.0%
all 42 +1.7% -8.0% 50% 38% -6.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.0% 38% -6.0%
10% -16.8% 38% -15.0%
15% -24.8% 36% -23.2%
20% -32.2% 31% -30.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late +13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$12 · ×1.1 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.1 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$110
Realized+$10
Unrealized+$10
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses21 / 21
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions3
Markets (closed)42 / 45
History coverage10d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day7.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit38%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 42 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 68¢ 69¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+2%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 12¢ $25 $33 +$8 (+32%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 61¢ 64¢ $25 $26 +$1 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $5 +$24 +466%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $5 −$2 -34%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $25 +$13 +52%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $25 +$14 +54%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10 +$16 +156%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $25 +$6 +26%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $30 +$19 +62%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $25 +$28 +109%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $5 +$5 +105%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $25 −$19 -77%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 $0 +2%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $21 $0 +2%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 +$4 +81%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 −$3 -49%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $89 +$40 +45%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -97%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $9 −$9 -98%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 +$1 +7%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 +$8 +158%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 $0 +8%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 +$7 +132%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 $0 -5%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $18 +$17 +94%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $25 −$25 -98%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $30 −$16 -54%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $25 +$29 +114%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $25 −$25 -99%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $25 −$25 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $25 +$40 +158%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $25 +$11 +44%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $74 −$74 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $50 1h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 75¢ $24 1h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 1h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 39¢ $5 1h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 4h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 4h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 7h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $25 7h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 9h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 91¢ $39 9h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $25 10h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 99¢ $26 22h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 38¢ $10 23h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $32 27h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 79¢ $25 29h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $30 35h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $53 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 47¢ $25 2d
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 2d
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 42¢ $15 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $5 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 17¢ $6 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 72¢ $25 2d
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 3d
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 3d
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 46¢ $10 3d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 35¢ $5 3d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 15¢ $20 3d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 3d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $110.13 · official $110.13 (match) · 94 history records