Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T10:14:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
4D 0x4dde…91b2 sports 172 markets active 1h ago coverage 568d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$234 (+2%) realized +$199 · open +$35
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate51%83W / 79L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$58per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$49est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$1,622now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$490
14 days−$313
30 days−$311
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 61% +$330
sports 37% −$263
other 1% −$100
politics 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-20.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 -56.3% -60.5% 40% 8% -44.6%
≤30d 63 -14.4% -22.5% 62% 21% -26.9%
≤90d 130 -12.6% -21.0% 50% 30% -9.4%
all 162 -12.0% -20.4% 51% 35% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.4% 35% -10.3%
10% -28.0% 32% -18.9%
15% -35.0% 28% -26.7%
20% -41.3% 25% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late -33% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$47 vs −$50 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

568d coverage
Net worth$1,622
Realized+$199
Unrealized+$35
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses83 / 79
Est. fees paid−$49
Open positions10
Markets (closed)162 / 172
History coverage568d
Avg bet$58
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 162 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Sinja Kraus vs. Anna Kalinskaya: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Over 2.5 49¢ 64¢ $200 $263 +$63 (+32%)
Kraus vs. Kalinskaya: Set 2 Games O/U 10.5 Over 49¢ 50¢ $200 $204 +$4 (+2%)
Kraus vs. Kalinskaya: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Over 49¢ 50¢ $200 $204 +$4 (+2%)
Kraus vs. Kalinskaya: Match O/U 22.5 Over 49¢ 50¢ $200 $202 +$2 (+1%)
Kraus vs. Kalinskaya: Match O/U 23.5 Over 49¢ 50¢ $200 $202 +$2 (+1%)
Set Handicap: Kalinskaya (-1.5) vs Kraus (+1.5) Kalinskaya 49¢ 46¢ $196 $184 −$12 (-6%)
Set 1 Winner: Kraus vs Kalinskaya Kraus 48¢ 39¢ $197 $159 −$38 (-19%)
Bad Homburg Open: Sinja Kraus vs Anna Kalinskaya Sinja Kraus 34¢ 34¢ $139 $137 −$2 (-1%)
Kraus vs. Kalinskaya: Match O/U 21.5 Over 49¢ 49¢ $49 $49 +$0 (+0%)
Kraus vs. Kalinskaya: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Under 49¢ 50¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Set Handicap: Kalinskaya (-1.5) vs Kraus (+1.5) Kraus 49¢ 54¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Hyeon Chung vs. Masamichi Imamura: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $19 +$2 +9%
Chung vs. Imamura: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 19 $20 $0 +2%
Chung vs. Imamura: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 19 $18 $0 +2%
Set Handicap: Chung (-1.5) vs Imamura (+1.5) Jun 19 $17 +$3 +17%
Chung vs. Imamura: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 19 $13 +$7 +58%
Chung vs. Imamura: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 19 $19 $0 +2%
Petrovic vs. Best: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Completed Match: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Set 1 Winner: Cobolli vs Zverev Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Set 1 Winner: Schell vs Plunger Jun 19 $0 $0 -100%
Cattolica: Completed Match: Max Hans Rehberg vs Roberto Carballes Baen Jun 19 $11 −$11 -100%
Mannarino vs. Rinderknech: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 19 $6 −$6 -100%
ITF Women Monastir: Completed Match: Margaux Komano vs Chloe Noel Jun 19 $20 −$20 -100%
ITF Men kiseljak: Completed Match: Yaroslav Demin vs Younes Lalami Laa Jun 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Petrovic vs. Best: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Mannarino vs. Rinderknech: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 19 $15 −$15 -100%
Cattolica: Max Hans Rehberg vs Roberto Carballes Baena Jun 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Set 1 Winner: Meza vs Nguyen Jun 19 $20 −$20 -100%
ITF kiseljak: Drazen Petrovic vs Henry Best Jun 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Demin vs. Laaroussi: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 19 $20 −$20 -100%
ITF Los Angeles: Midori Castillo Meza vs Kenzie Nguyen Jun 19 $18 −$18 -100%
Set Handicap: Rinderknech (-1.5) vs Mannarino (+1.5) Jun 19 $16 −$16 -100%
Pliskova vs. Kessler: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 19 $49 −$49 -100%
HSBC Championships: Completed Match: Karolina Pliskova vs McCartney Ke Jun 19 $97 −$97 -100%
Komano vs. Noel: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Max Hans Rehberg vs. Roberto Carballes Baena: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $20 −$20 -100%
ITF kiseljak: Yaroslav Demin vs Younes Lalami Laaroussi Jun 19 $19 −$19 -100%
Margaux Komano vs. Chloe Noel: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Bu vs. Virtanen: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 19 $1 $0 +2%
Stuttgart Open (Doubles): Glinka/Sakellaridis vs Bublik/Kyrgios Jun 19 $20 $0 +2%
Oz vs. Pieri: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 19 $98 +$4 +4%
Set 1 Winner: Oz vs Pieri Jun 19 $99 +$3 +4%
ITF Taipei: Misaki Matsuda vs Haruka Kaji Jun 19 $108 −$103 -95%
ITF Tokyo: Hyeon Chung vs Masamichi Imamura Jun 16 $39 +$1 +3%
Set Handicap: Oz (-1.5) vs Pieri (+1.5) Jun 16 $100 +$2 +2%
Ipek Oz vs. Jessica Pieri: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $100 +$2 +2%
Oz vs. Pieri: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 16 $59 +$1 +2%
Oz vs. Pieri: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 16 $94 +$8 +9%
Chung vs. Imamura: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 16 $14 +$3 +21%
Montgomery vs. Krejcikova: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5 Jun 14 $20 $0 +2%
Montgomery vs. Krejcikova: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $20 $0 +2%
ITF Tokyo: Hikaru Sato vs Kurea Hayasaka Jun 11 $18 +$2 +14%
Sato vs. Hayasaka: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 11 $20 $0 +2%
Set 1 Winner: Sato vs Hayasaka Jun 11 $20 $0 +2%
ITF Wichita: Philip Sekulic vs Blake Ellis Jun 11 $20 $0 +2%
Adrian Mannarino vs. Arthur Rinderknech: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $8 +$9 +117%
Libema Open: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Rinderknech Jun 11 $17 +$23 +134%
Mannarino vs. Rinderknech: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 11 $15 +$15 +101%
Set 1 Winner: Mannarino vs Rinderknech Jun 11 $20 +$21 +107%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Set Handicap: Kalinskaya (-1.5) vs Kraus (+1.5) BUY Kalinskaya 49¢ $12 1h
Kraus vs. Kalinskaya: Match O/U 22.5 BUY Over 49¢ $20 1h
Sinja Kraus vs. Anna Kalinskaya: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Over 2.5 49¢ $20 1h
Kraus vs. Kalinskaya: Match O/U 23.5 BUY Over 49¢ $19 1h
Kraus vs. Kalinskaya: Set 2 Games O/U 10.5 BUY Over 49¢ $200 1h
Set Handicap: Kalinskaya (-1.5) vs Kraus (+1.5) BUY Kraus 49¢ $0 1h
Set Handicap: Kalinskaya (-1.5) vs Kraus (+1.5) SELL Kalinskaya 50¢ $4 1h
Kraus vs. Kalinskaya: Match O/U 23.5 BUY Over 49¢ $1 1h
Kraus vs. Kalinskaya: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 BUY Over 49¢ $150 1h
Kraus vs. Kalinskaya: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 BUY Over 49¢ $50 1h
Set Handicap: Kalinskaya (-1.5) vs Kraus (+1.5) BUY Kalinskaya 49¢ $102 1h
Kraus vs. Kalinskaya: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 BUY Under 49¢ $1 1h
Set Handicap: Kalinskaya (-1.5) vs Kraus (+1.5) BUY Kalinskaya 49¢ $78 1h
Set Handicap: Kalinskaya (-1.5) vs Kraus (+1.5) BUY Kalinskaya 49¢ $4 1h
Kraus vs. Kalinskaya: Match O/U 21.5 BUY Over 49¢ $46 1h
Set Handicap: Kalinskaya (-1.5) vs Kraus (+1.5) BUY Kalinskaya 49¢ $4 1h
Sinja Kraus vs. Anna Kalinskaya: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Over 2.5 49¢ $180 1h
Kraus vs. Kalinskaya: Match O/U 21.5 BUY Over 49¢ $2 1h
Kraus vs. Kalinskaya: Match O/U 23.5 BUY Over 49¢ $180 1h
Kraus vs. Kalinskaya: Match O/U 22.5 BUY Over 49¢ $180 1h
Set 1 Winner: Kraus vs Kalinskaya BUY Kraus 49¢ $175 1h
Bad Homburg Open: Sinja Kraus vs Anna Kalinskaya BUY Sinja Kraus 34¢ $141 1h
Set 1 Winner: Kraus vs Kalinskaya BUY Kraus 44¢ $22 1h
Set Handicap: Chung (-1.5) vs Imamura (+1.5) SELL Chung 50¢ $10 3d
ITF Taipei: Misaki Matsuda vs Haruka Kaji BUY Misaki Matsuda 50¢ $95 3d
ITF Taipei: Misaki Matsuda vs Haruka Kaji SELL Misaki Matsuda 50¢ $5 3d
ITF Taipei: Misaki Matsuda vs Haruka Kaji BUY Misaki Matsuda 6¢ $13 3d
Set 1 Winner: Schell vs Plunger BUY Plunger 1¢ $0 4d
ITF Tokyo: Hyeon Chung vs Masamichi Imamura SELL Masamichi Imamura 50¢ $8 5d
ITF Tokyo: Hyeon Chung vs Masamichi Imamura SELL Masamichi Imamura 50¢ $10 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,621.63 · official $1,621.35 (match) · 428 history records