Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:59:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
4D 0x4ddb…cd80 world 13 markets active 2d ago coverage 358d
RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,104 (+6%) realized +$1,133 · open −$29
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate70%7W / 3L
Drawdown13%max
Avg bet$1,532per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$271now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 85% +$851
world 11% +$129
economics 3% +$129
politics 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)-12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d no closed markets
all 10 -3.3% -12.5% 70% 60% -4.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.5% 60% -4.3%
10% -20.9% 0% -13.5%
15% -28.5% 0% -21.8%
20% -35.5% 0% -29.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 66% · top 2 76% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI — too few recent
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$184 vs −$52 · ×3.55 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×8.28 per $1 lost it wins $8.28
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

358d coverage
Net worth$271
Realized+$1,133
Unrealized−$29
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses7 / 3
Open positions3
Markets (closed)10 / 13
History coverage358d
Avg bet$1,532
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown13%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $100 $115 +$15 (+15%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 13¢ $100 $82 −$18 (-18%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Yes 52¢ 38¢ $100 $74 −$26 (-26%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Xi Jinping out in 2025? Nov 04 $16,688 +$855 +5%
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping by October 31? Oct 26 $20 −$6 -29%
Xi Jinping out before 2027? Oct 25 $100 $0 -0%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2025? Sep 16 $654 +$100 +15%
US recession in 2025? Sep 16 $657 +$129 +20%
US-Iran nuclear deal in 2025? Jun 24 $200 +$23 +12%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran before July? Jun 24 $100 +$11 +11%
Israel x Iran ceasefire before July 15? Jun 24 $150 −$150 -100%
Will the Iranian regime fall in 2025? Jun 23 $570 +$95 +17%
Will Iran strike Gulf oil facilities before September? Jun 23 $466 +$76 +16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 52¢ $100 2d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $103 2d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $103 2d
Xi Jinping out in 2025? SELL No 97¢ $4,001 224d
Xi Jinping out in 2025? BUY No 97¢ $4,001 227d
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping by October 31? SELL No $14 233d
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping by October 31? BUY No $20 234d
Xi Jinping out in 2025? SELL No 96¢ $13,542 235d
Xi Jinping out before 2027? SELL No 83¢ $100 235d
Xi Jinping out in 2025? BUY No 94¢ $783 247d
Xi Jinping out before 2027? BUY No 83¢ $100 273d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2025? SELL No 81¢ $97 273d
US recession in 2025? SELL No 90¢ $786 273d
Xi Jinping out in 2025? BUY No 89¢ $2,412 324d
Xi Jinping out in 2025? BUY No 88¢ $567 326d
Xi Jinping out in 2025? BUY No 88¢ $547 326d
Xi Jinping out in 2025? BUY No 88¢ $556 326d
Xi Jinping out in 2025? BUY No 89¢ $557 328d
Xi Jinping out in 2025? BUY No 90¢ $556 329d
Xi Jinping out in 2025? BUY No 90¢ $557 330d
Xi Jinping out in 2025? BUY No 91¢ $557 330d
Xi Jinping out in 2025? BUY No 89¢ $1,114 331d
Xi Jinping out in 2025? BUY No 90¢ $521 331d
Xi Jinping out in 2025? BUY No 92¢ $1,000 331d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2025? SELL No 74¢ $30 331d
Xi Jinping out in 2025? BUY No 92¢ $1,453 332d
US recession in 2025? BUY No 83¢ $100 332d
Xi Jinping out in 2025? BUY No 92¢ $1,000 332d
Xi Jinping out in 2025? BUY No 92¢ $207 333d
Xi Jinping out in 2025? BUY No 92¢ $300 333d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $270.61 · official $270.61 (match) · 89 history records