Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T03:01:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
4D 0x4dda…642f crypto 82 markets active 2h ago coverage 179d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$728 (+3%) realized +$732 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate57%46W / 35L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown71%max
Avg bet$254per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$2,018now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,691
7 days−$1,691
14 days−$1,132
30 days−$1,132
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 52% +$2,437
other 39% −$1,692
politics 5% −$94
economics 1% +$18
crypto 1% +$61
sports 1% −$44
tech 0% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-13.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -66.9% -70.0% 0% 0% -40.4%
≤30d 3 -38.6% -44.5% 33% 33% -22.2%
≤90d 8 -0.4% -9.9% 62% 38% -5.2%
all 81 -3.9% -13.1% 57% 30% -6.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.1% 30% -6.2%
10% -21.4% 16% -15.2%
15% -29.0% 14% -23.4%
20% -36.0% 5% -30.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 66% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
46% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -5% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$56 vs −$55 · ×1.03 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.35 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

179d coverage
Net worth$2,018
Realized+$732
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses46 / 35
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)81 / 82
History coverage179d
Avg bet$254
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown71%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 81 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $2,022 $2,018 −$4 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? Jun 27 $4,947 −$1,681 -34%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 14 $3,133 +$559 +18%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 25 $2,600 +$533 +20%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 23 $1,443 +$1,154 +80%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? May 03 $1,314 +$125 +10%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 23 $1,210 +$102 +8%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? Apr 03 $736 −$41 -6%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 22 $91 −$3 -4%
Xi Jinping out before 2027? Mar 22 $93 −$2 -2%
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? Mar 22 $94 −$2 -2%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 22 $313 −$89 -28%
Tim Walz charged by March 31, 2026? Mar 22 $94 +$4 +4%
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Perseverance Mar 22 $230 −$45 -20%
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? Jan 28 $96 +$2 +2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026? Jan 28 $96 +$4 +4%
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? Jan 28 $217 +$10 +4%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Invictus Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Jan 28 $2 +$1 +33%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Jan 10 $53 −$12 -22%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 09 $89 +$9 +10%
Will anyone be charged over Daycare fraud in Minnesota by January 31? Jan 09 $148 +$8 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 5, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jan 05 $1 $0 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 5, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jan 05 $2 +$1 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 5, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jan 05 $2 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 5, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jan 05 $2 $0 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 5, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jan 05 $2 $0 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 5, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jan 05 $2 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 4, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jan 05 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 4, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jan 05 $2 $0 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 4, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jan 05 $2 −$1 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 4, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jan 05 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 4, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jan 05 $1 $0 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 4, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jan 04 $1 $0 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 4, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jan 04 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 4, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jan 04 $2 $0 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 4, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jan 04 $3 −$1 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 4, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jan 04 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 4, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jan 04 $2 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 4, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jan 04 $2 $0 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 4, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jan 04 $2 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 4, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jan 04 $4 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 4, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jan 04 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 4, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jan 04 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 4, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jan 04 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 4, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jan 04 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 4, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jan 04 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 4, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jan 04 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 4, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jan 04 $2 −$2 -81%
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by January 31? Jan 04 $55 −$9 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 3, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jan 04 $5 $0 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 24¢ $2,069 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? SELL No 67¢ $412 8h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? SELL No 67¢ $50 8h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? SELL No 67¢ $679 8h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? SELL No 67¢ $14 8h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? SELL No 67¢ $37 8h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? SELL No 67¢ $0 10h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? SELL No 67¢ $5 10h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? SELL No 67¢ $54 10h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? SELL No 67¢ $5 10h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? SELL No 67¢ $9 10h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY No 64¢ $7 11h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY No 64¢ $192 12h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY No 64¢ $42 12h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY No 64¢ $3 12h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY No 64¢ $2 12h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY No 64¢ $3 12h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY No 64¢ $957 12h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 25h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? SELL Yes 41¢ $2,003 25h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? BUY Yes 36¢ $10 6d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY Yes 66¢ $88 11d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY Yes 75¢ $270 11d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY Yes 75¢ $3 11d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY Yes 75¢ $3 12d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY Yes 75¢ $750 12d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY Yes 75¢ $4 12d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY Yes 75¢ $3 12d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY Yes 75¢ $2 12d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY Yes 75¢ $1 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,018.03 · official $2,018.03 (match) · 361 history records