Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T00:01:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

4D 0x4dd1…ae6a other 31 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d

COPY-WORTHYcopy this ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

! high turnover

Total PnL +$276 (+16%) realized +$108 · open +$168

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +67% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +39% what you keep after slip

Net edge+39%after slip

Net WR62%break-even

Win rate62%18W / 11L

Drawdown46%max

Avg bet$54per market

Trades / day17.3pace

Fees−$9est.

Kalshi-fit26%portable

Net worth$478now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

worth copying (survives realistic slippage)

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +62%

net ROI/market (all)+51.1%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	29	+67.0%	+51.1%	62%	62%	+8.7%
≤30d	29	+67.0%	+51.1%	62%	62%	+8.7%
≤90d	29	+67.0%	+51.1%	62%	62%	+8.7%
all	29	+67.0%	+51.1%	62%	62%	+8.7%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover17.3 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+51.1%	62%	+8.7%
10%	+36.6%	55%	-1.7%
15%	+23.4%	55%	-11.2%
20%	+11.3%	38%	-19.9%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 18% · top 2 35% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +20% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +67% · $-wt +20% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +136% → late +2% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$28 vs −$21 · ×1.32 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×2.16 per $1 lost it wins $2.16

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage

Net worth$478

Realized+$108

Unrealized+$168

Win rate (resolved)62%

Wins / losses18 / 11

Est. fees paid−$9

Open positions1

Markets (closed)29 / 31

History coverage4d

Avg bet$54

Trades / day17.3

Drawdown46%

Kalshi-fit26%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 29 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24?	Yes	65¢	100¢	$310	$478	+$168 (+54%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw?	Jun 24	$102	+$15	+14%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 24	$112	+$84	+75%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw?	Jun 24	$31	−$16	-52%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 24	$71	−$20	-28%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23?	Jun 24	$202	+$92	+46%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw?	Jun 23	$20	+$12	+61%
Will England win on 2026-06-23?	Jun 23	$241	−$94	-39%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23?	Jun 23	$10	−$1	-6%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23?	Jun 23	$201	+$31	+16%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 23	$20	−$20	-97%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 23	$10	−$10	-100%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 23	$10	−$10	-100%
Harry Kane: 2+ goals	Jun 23	$20	−$20	-98%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals	Jun 23	$10	+$24	+234%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 23	$21	+$22	+110%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 23	$20	+$10	+50%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw?	Jun 23	$20	+$11	+56%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw?	Jun 23	$31	−$11	-37%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 23	$20	+$10	+47%
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals	Jun 23	$20	+$38	+188%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 22	$50	+$24	+48%
Lionel Messi: 2+ goals	Jun 22	$10	+$27	+262%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 22	$5	+$3	+62%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?	Jun 21	$5	+$15	+282%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$25	−$25	-100%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score	Jun 21	$5	−$5	-100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$20	+$9	+44%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw?	Jun 21	$5	+$40	+786%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$10	+$33	+320%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	52¢	$10	27m
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	55¢	$10	31m
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	65¢	$20	1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	38¢	$20	1h
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw?	SELL Yes	31¢	$117	1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	66¢	$51	1h
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw?	BUY Yes	26¢	$102	1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	71¢	$202	1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw?	SELL Yes	0¢	$1	3h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw?	BUY Yes	15¢	$21	3h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24?	SELL Yes	9¢	$6	3h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw?	SELL Yes	15¢	$14	4h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw?	BUY Yes	10¢	$10	4h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	36¢	$10	4h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	30¢	$20	8h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	42¢	$51	15h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw?	SELL Yes	93¢	$33	26h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw?	BUY Yes	57¢	$20	26h
Will England win on 2026-06-23?	SELL Yes	40¢	$23	26h
Will England win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	51¢	$30	26h
Will England win on 2026-06-23?	SELL Yes	50¢	$125	26h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23?	SELL Yes	6¢	$10	26h
Will England win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	67¢	$10	27h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	68¢	$202	27h
Will England win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	84¢	$201	28h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23?	SELL Yes	100¢	$232	29h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24?	SELL Yes	27¢	$45	29h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24?	SELL Yes	41¢	$49	29h
Harry Kane: 2+ goals	BUY Yes	29¢	$20	29h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals	SELL Yes	99¢	$34	30h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $478.02 · official $478.02 (match) · 82 history records