Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T21:20:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
4D 0x4dd0…c185 sports 168 markets active 2h ago coverage 537d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$91 (+3%) realized +$91 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate71%119W / 48L
Drawdown53%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$38now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$50
7 days+$52
14 days+$57
30 days+$24
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% +$79
sports 32% +$6
politics 5% −$11
crypto 4% +$11
culture 2% +$1
world 2% $0
weather 2% $0
tech 1% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-13.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +132.3% +110.2% 100% 33% +117.5%
≤30d 10 +34.6% +21.8% 90% 20% +0.4%
≤90d 35 +12.7% +2.0% 91% 31% -3.8%
all 167 -4.0% -13.1% 71% 30% -7.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.1% 30% -7.1%
10% -21.4% 15% -16.0%
15% -29.0% 8% -24.1%
20% -36.0% 6% -31.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
58% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late +7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$5 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.4 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

537d coverage
Net worth$38
Realized+$91
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses119 / 48
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)167 / 168
History coverage537d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown53%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 167 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Ireland England 99¢ 100¢ $37 $38 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $13 +$50 +388%
Will Liechtenstein win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $2 $0 +0%
Will Kazakhstan win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $22 +$2 +8%
Will Andorra win on 2026-06-07? Jun 08 $22 +$1 +5%
Will Finland win on 2026-06-05? Jun 06 $11 +$2 +17%
Will Dominican Republic win on 2026-06-03? Jun 04 $27 +$2 +8%
Will CS Huancayo win on 2026-05-30? Jun 01 $24 +$2 +8%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $39 −$39 -100%
Will Burnley FC win on 2026-05-18? May 19 $7 $0 +3%
Will FK Orenburg win on 2026-05-17? May 19 $56 +$4 +7%
Will Hamburger SV win on 2026-05-16? May 17 $32 +$3 +10%
Will Zalaegerszeg TE win on 2026-05-16? May 17 $34 +$1 +4%
Will Cádiz CF win on 2026-05-15? May 16 $28 +$2 +9%
Will Real Oviedo win on 2026-05-14? May 15 $33 +$2 +6%
Will Stade Brestois 29 win on 2026-05-10? May 12 $35 +$2 +5%
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-05-09? May 10 $31 +$4 +12%
Lakers vs. Thunder May 08 $27 +$4 +13%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 07 $30 +$8 +27%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 05 $12 −$6 -54%
Will Hellas Verona FC win on 2026-05-03? May 04 $67 +$3 +5%
Will Angers SCO win on 2026-04-25? Apr 26 $74 +$5 +7%
Will Real Madrid CF vs. Deportivo Alavés end in a draw? Apr 23 $56 +$7 +12%
Will AJ Auxerre win on 2026-04-19? Apr 20 $19 +$3 +16%
Kings vs. Avalanche Apr 20 $18 +$7 +42%
Will FC Porto win on 2026-04-19? Apr 20 $21 +$4 +17%
Will Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. CD Nacional end in a draw? Apr 13 $22 +$2 +8%
Will New York City FC win on 2026-04-11? Apr 13 $21 +$4 +19%
Will PFK Krylia Sovetov Samara win on 2026-04-04? Apr 05 $29 +$1 +3%
Will Egypt win on 2026-03-30? Apr 01 $21 +$1 +4%
Will Northern Ireland win on 2026-03-26? Mar 29 $14 +$1 +5%
Will FC Fredericia win on 2026-03-22? Mar 23 $28 −$28 -100%
Miami Open: Damir Dzumhur vs Jannik Sinner Mar 22 $28 $0 +2%
California Baptist Lancers vs. Kansas Jayhawks Mar 21 $22 +$3 +12%
Will Panathinaikós AO win on 2026-03-19? Mar 20 $28 +$1 +2%
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2026-03-18? Mar 19 $41 +$4 +10%
Wizards vs. Celtics Mar 15 $21 +$1 +5%
Will CU Técnica de Cajamarca win on 2026-03-14? Mar 15 $23 +$1 +5%
Will Preston North End FC win on 2026-03-14? Mar 15 $27 +$4 +16%
Cavaliers vs. Mavericks Mar 14 $37 +$2 +6%
BNP Paribas Open: Aryna Sabalenka vs Victoria Mboko Mar 13 $7 +$2 +32%
BNP Paribas Open: Arthur Fils vs Alexander Zverev Mar 13 $28 +$1 +3%
BNP Paribas Open: Joao Fonseca vs Jannik Sinner Mar 12 $28 +$3 +10%
Will RFK Akhmat Groznyi win on 2026-03-09? Mar 10 $16 +$4 +27%
Air Force Falcons vs. Nevada Wolf Pack Mar 08 $17 $0 +2%
Will Pisa SC win on 2026-03-07? Mar 08 $22 +$1 +5%
Mavericks vs. Celtics Mar 07 $9 +$1 +11%
Florida Gulf Coast Eagles vs. Lipscomb Bisons Mar 07 $14 +$2 +16%
Will the match end in a draw? Mar 07 $29 $0 +1%
Bulls vs. Suns Mar 06 $47 −$47 -100%
Maryland Terrapins vs. Wisconsin Badgers Mar 05 $49 +$4 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Ireland BUY England 99¢ $37 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 20¢ $13 5d
Will Liechtenstein win on 2026-06-09? BUY No 100¢ $2 7d
Will Kazakhstan win on 2026-06-09? BUY No 92¢ $22 8d
Will Andorra win on 2026-06-07? BUY No 95¢ $22 10d
Will Finland win on 2026-06-05? BUY No 85¢ $11 12d
Will Dominican Republic win on 2026-06-03? BUY No 92¢ $27 13d
Will CS Huancayo win on 2026-05-30? BUY No 92¢ $24 17d
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-24? BUY No 91¢ $39 23d
Will FK Orenburg win on 2026-05-17? BUY No 93¢ $33 30d
Will Burnley FC win on 2026-05-18? BUY No 97¢ $7 30d
Will FK Orenburg win on 2026-05-17? BUY No 93¢ $23 30d
Will Zalaegerszeg TE win on 2026-05-16? BUY No 96¢ $34 31d
Will Hamburger SV win on 2026-05-16? BUY No 91¢ $32 31d
Will Cádiz CF win on 2026-05-15? BUY No 92¢ $28 33d
Will Real Oviedo win on 2026-05-14? BUY No 94¢ $33 33d
Will Stade Brestois 29 win on 2026-05-10? BUY No 95¢ $35 37d
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-05-09? BUY No 89¢ $31 38d
Lakers vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 88¢ $27 40d
Timberwolves vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 78¢ $30 41d
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes $5 42d
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes $12 46d
Will Hellas Verona FC win on 2026-05-03? BUY No 95¢ $67 47d
Will Angers SCO win on 2026-04-25? BUY No 93¢ $74 52d
Will Real Madrid CF vs. Deportivo Alavés end in a draw? BUY No 89¢ $18 56d
Will Real Madrid CF vs. Deportivo Alavés end in a draw? BUY No 89¢ $38 56d
Kings vs. Avalanche BUY Avalanche 70¢ $18 58d
Will FC Porto win on 2026-04-19? BUY Yes 85¢ $21 58d
Will AJ Auxerre win on 2026-04-19? BUY No 86¢ $19 59d
Will Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. CD Nacional end in a draw? BUY No 92¢ $22 66d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $37.67 · official $37.67 (match) · 360 history records